Daniel Sullivan - he’s a little political

The actual new FG front bench

// July 1st, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

As got from p.ie, where there is mucho interesting discussion about it. Looks to me like Finance and the long term economy has been split which I think is a very good thing indeed.

FINE GAEL FRONT BENCH 2010 |

——————+———————-

Enda Kenny |Leader / Northern Ireland
—————————+———————-
Sean Barrett |Foreign Affairs
—————————+———————-
Richard Bruton |Enterprise, Jobs & Economic Planning (including public service reform)
—————————+———————-
Catherine Byrne |Older Citizens
—————————+———————-
Simon Coveney |Transport
—————————+——————————————-
Deirdre Clune |Innovation & Research
—————————+——————————————-
Jimmy Deenihan |Tourism, Culture & Sport
—————————+——————————————-
Andrew Doyle |Agriculture, Fisheries & Food
—————————+——————————————-
Frank Feighan |Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs
—————————+——————————————-
Charlie Flanagan |Children
—————————+——————————————-
Phil Hogan |Environment, Heritage & Local Government
—————————+——————————————-
Paul Kehoe |Chief Whip (with responsibility for political reform)
—————————+——————————————-
Michael Noonan |Finance
—————————+——————————————-
Fergus O’Dowd |Education & Skills
—————————+——————————————-
John Perry |Small Business
—————————+——————————————-
James Reilly |Deputy Leader & Health & Children, (with responsibility for policy coordination &
implementation)
—————————+——————————————-
Michael Ring |Social Protection
—————————+——————————————-
Alan Shatter |Justice & Law Reform
—————————+——————————————-
David Stanton |Defence
—————————+——————————————-
Leo Varadkar |Communications & Natural Resources
—————————+——————————————-
Frances Fitzgerald |Leader in Seanad

Fine Gael should split the Finance portfolio

// June 28th, 2010 // 1 Comment » // fine gael

My own take on the line up for the new FG Front Bench is that the plan as suggested at the time of George Lee’s departure that the area of Finance and the economy needs a long term view in addition to someone to respond to the day to day eruptions should be put into effect. Michael Noonan should be the person to face off with Lenihan on the day to day stuff with Richard Bruton handling the medium to longer term evolution of our policy proposals. It would be double teaming of the highest order, but will we take the chance it represents?

The next Fine Gael Front bench

// June 21st, 2010 // 2 Comments » // fine gael

My Predictions for the new Fine Gael front Bench are below, note these are who I suspect having read my runes and the entrails of a passing goat that the train hit. They are not necessarily who I would pick nor who I think would be most suitable, well some of them might be while others would not be. You can judge for yourself

Michael Noonan - [Finance] (he’s not a threat to Enda and he is familiar with the brief for finance and is well able to respond and think on his feet)

Michael Ring - [Agriculture, Fisheries & Food]

Jimmy Deenihan - [Arts, Sport & Tourism]

Phil Hogan [Communications, Energy & Natural Resources]

Seymour Crawford [Community, Rural & Gaeltacht Affairs]

Terence Flanagan [Defence]

Leo Varadkar [Education & Science]

Phil Hogan - [Enterprise, Trade & Employment]

David Stanton - [Environment, Heritage & Local Government]

Fergus O’Dowd - [Foreign Affairs]

James Reilly [Health] and deputy leader

Deirdre Clune [Immigration & Integration]

Alan Shatter - [Justice, Equality & Law Reform]

Catherine Byrne - [Children]

Brian Hayes - [Social & Family Affairs]

Paul Kehoe - [Transport & Marine]

John Perry [Chief Whip]

Where does Fine Gael go now?

// June 18th, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

I think this rural vs urban stuff is nonsense, Mark Coughlan of another parish noted that it seemed to be in areas where the PDs had once had a foothold or seat that the FGers were opposed to the confidence motion. I would expend that and incorporating my previously expressed and rather simplistic notion of tribalists versus policisits slightly. I would suggest that TDs and Senators from places where FF are the only enemy (and I would include places where a personal vote has gotten Labour TDs elected), these are for the most part ideological free zones and have been for the last 30 years or more and they tended to back Enda because they saw this as an internal party matter and assault on the chief. But in places where FGers have had to battle Labour, the PDs, SF or the Greens or some other shape of ideologue then they saw this as being about reaching out way beyond traditional FG territory by the force of our ideas and so were backing Bruton. In those places, they are tend to FG more by choice than by birth and what the party actually does is more important than who does it. Those they are places where the PDs gained votes from FG during the 80s and 90s.

That divide still remains, and if those who think it is more important what your family did in 1922 than what you’ve got to offer yourself have the upper hand and use it to secure their position then the party is going to find itself struck around 30% for the foreseeable future with Labour and FF snapping at their heels. But if they realise that what was being said in criticism of the performance at the top table was valid and that we still require a change at the top, even if that change is to be in what the top is doing rather than who it is that is doing it  then we could really make some headway and leap well ahead of both FF and Labour. For me it is noteworthy that no one has addressed my Bloomsday questions  to date, and I think that’s because they are still current and no one particularly wants to give voice to the answers.

Those  questions are.

1. Do they accept there is a problem with the public’s perception of his abilities – not with his actual abilities but with the public’s perception of them? I think most people will answer yes.

2. To those who accept there is a problem with that perception, what do we do about it? There are three options: i) demonstrate immediately a convincing plan to right the public’s misconceptions of Mr Kenny and explain why this has not happened before now, ii) accept stagnation of the party’s support, or iii) remove the perception problem entirely by removing the very man who is the subject of the incorrect perception.

We appear yesterday to have rejected option (iii) and surely we can’t as a party be planning on living with option (ii) so the question remains when will we see movement on option (i)?

What the contest in Fine Gael is about

// June 17th, 2010 // 1 Comment » // fine gael

The contest in FG is not urban or rural as Elaine Byrne suggested but between the politics of “what” and “how” as compared with the politics of “who, and where and when”. There is a not inconsiderable number in Irish politics across the party divide for whom the intoning of the party name is the answer to all questions. This is great stuff at the time of an Ard Fheis when rallying the troops but holds less water when faced with more practical problems as we are now.

Enda has rebuilt an organisation that was eager to listen, desperate for salvation, while the general public were not as eager to listen to him. Those abilities and talents which allowed him to achieve this task of re-equipping Fine Gael and to be the best suited person to undertake this task are not the same as the abilities required to get across and convert people who were not so inclined towards the party or who have never thought of voting for it.

And at the time he started, Enda Kenny and the party recognised this and the counter argument to weakness in his approach was that in Irish politics we do not elect an all powerful president, a singular saviour, but we elect a parliament from which our executive will be drawn and this government will be chosen by the individual who commands a majority in that chamber. The value of the Fine Gael approach over the last 8 years was that it emphasised the team: that Fine Gael had solid competent people in the right place. The party was not selling a mere individual but an entire roster. Enda was to be player manager, picking the team beforehand and urging them on new heights on the pitch. He did not need to be the best player in the most important position.

Thus if the public might not be convinced that Enda Kenny knew all when it came to matters economic he had Richard Bruton by his side to reassure them on that. This approach was a harder sell in 2007 than it is now when the panel the leader had to draw from was more threadbare than any Fine Gael leader had been faced with up to that point. Yet the party almost did it if some of the dice had fallen right. Had highly anticipated gains by the other partners in the new Rainbow come through if Dominic Hannigan prevailed, or Dan Boyle held his seat or the Greens made their much vaunted breakthrough in Galway West how differ it might all have been. That time is passed, that particular race is run.

Fact is that Enda was also selected by the party to out-Bertie Bertie and the time for Bertie has passed. Bertie was the ultimate leader of the easy times, faced with a choice between two hard options he would and could pick both. Glad handling and the large scale superficial campaign of recent elections has been replaced by the more nuanced, even tedious policy discussion required to convey a party’s reading of the intricacy of NAMA, achieving national economic recovery in varied forms, dealing with the impressions of the bond markets as we borrow extensively and more before breakfast.

It is this change in political reality that more than anything else necessitates a change in approach and hence in leader. When Enda Kenny suggested at the recent national conference that despite his hailing of the work of Richard Bruton the day before that having him as Minister for Finance was not a deal breaker in any arrangement with Labour it signalled to many in the party and beyond that the FG approach to the restoration of the economy could be easily sidelined to that of Labour. Labour would hold the key ministry of finance from which all resources flow. If that were the case then the public too felt why vote for the middle man if he was not the one who would set the economic course of the country.

The little defence that this is the wrong time admits that this is the right thing to do but just not now. Now that the knife is unsheathed this defence makes no sense at all.  The big defence advanced to date that we should look at what Enda has done as a sign of what he can and will do does not hold water over distance. Enda rebuilt an organisation but surely it does not rebuilding in the same way all over again? Enda did the hard yards but the coach who gets the players through the winter of running up sand dunes to build up their endurance is not the same one to work on their skills in spring. This is not about the past any more, the public have blamed FF for the mistakes we must now provide solutions.

More than anything I would characterise those who are most supportive of Enda to be moreover those for whom the fact of Fine Gael not being Fianna Fail is a bigger selling point to their core voters that the hard facts and policies of what Fine Gael itself stands for and is currently selling. Those ranged in opposition to Enda now are, in my view, those who are more interested convincing the public of what exactly the goals of Fine Gael are and how precisely it will achieve its aims rather that pointing out that Fine Gael are not Fianna Fail. This is where the divide is between those for whom it is more important what we will choose to do and how we do it than the mere fact that it is a Fine Gael minister who pulls the lever. The decision is more important that the person who makes it. Not that the person is irrelevant but less important. The time to merely aim to be not-FF is long past, the time to be Fine Gael has come.

What chances for a smooth change at the top of FG?

// June 14th, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

I suspect that it is obvious at this point that the possibility of a change at the top of FG has increased in the last 48 hours and the likelihood of this change over being a smooth and relatively bloodless one has, despite the appearances in the media, increased too. I believe that Enda Kenny knows that the race as currently constituted is run and a change in approach is needed and that he simply can’t overcome the incorrect perception of him that has fixed itself in the mind of the electorate. I say this as a fan of the man, he would be a superb Taoiseach but too large a portion of the electorate can’t see that. So the question is what do we do about it?

In part this mis-perception is to due to the media back lash after he took over the party as many people in the media were somewhat affronted that this guy from the west about whom they knew little had become leader of the main opposition party. Moreover, some of them were appalled that FG hadn’t disappeared to give them the simplistic left right politics they so desperately ached for. Enda Kenny kept the party from relegation into irrelevancy and obscurity but the work to do so meant that most of his time was spent with the organisation the length and breadth of the country and not in Dublin wining and dining with the media insiders. This crucial 18 months when he saved the party has probably damned him in the eyes of the media.

He was exactly what was needed to save the party, but we should remember that Moses never got to the promised Land. For those who say that we must support Enda in all circumstances come what may, I would ask two simply questions.

a) Do they accept that there is a problem with the public’s perception of his abilities? Not with his actual abilities but with the public’s perception of them. If they don’t then they must be blind or delusional.

And b) for those in full command of their faculties who accept there is a problem with that perception then the next question is what do we do about it? If there is something we can do about the then I wish to Christ we could hear it from them cos keeping it as a secret weapon to be deployed just when we need it most has gone on too long. Alternately, if there is nothing more we can do about that perception then either we accept that the party’s support will stagnant into the future at a time when the electorate is in complete flux or they see that a change is necessary. Those are the three options, demonstrate immediately a convincing plan to right the public’s perception of Enda Kenny (and explain why this has not happened before now), accept stagnation of the party’s support or remove the perception problem by removing the man the incorrect perception is of. I’m open to people telling me of other options, but right now those are the only ones I see.

By moving to lance the boil that is the public’s perception of him Enda Kenny can still take the point position in the debate against Brian Cowen, and he can challenge him to match his actions. Enda can profess that the situation has been changed so much by the banking reports that the people need to believe and be convinced that the next Taoiseach will be in command of the economic issues and not be open to being lead or being hostage as it is now so plain Brian Cowen has been, and that FG needs to be strong and seen to be strong in this area in order to ensure that the siren call from Labour to the electorate that there is some easy and painless way out of our economic situation is resisted.

Labour have done well convincing people that we can avoid public sector spending cuts, that we can somehow find significant extra taxation without it impacting on anyone or slowing down the recovering of the economy. There are areas where tax allowances on pensions say can be reduced but you can only do that the once.

We need to find 3 billion this year and then an extra 3 billion again the next and more again the year after that, not the same savings being done again but additional reductions in spending or increases in taxation. If we can get more people in work, then tax revenues will raise and public spending in the form of social welfare reductions.  But where will the money come from to fund this work? If the state were to provide it, we would be borrowing even more which we simply can’t do. That is to relive the 80s all over again.

Where are the FG conventions?

// March 29th, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

This time 5 years ago the electoral spectrum across the country was alive with talk of the likely runners and riders at Fine Gael conventions as newly crowned and clearly impatient local election winners muscled their way into the running for the general election along with previous general election contestants who had lost seats and various other notables along with the un-notable too.

There was a definite logic to this sense of urgency as a party with only 31 TDs and a scattering of Senators and a massive (some said impossible) hill to climb to get back within reach of forming a government FG simply had to get as many people into the squad pool as quickly as possible.

Many conventions were announced in the spring of 2005 as being scheduled for the autumn of that year just in case Bertie Ahern decided to go after 4 years and to ensure that we gave candidates a good run up to polling in the summer of 2006. Prospective candidates were appointed as local area reps and they were given a run out over a course of ground (as I believe the horsey people term it) to see their form. I think Ms Bacall and Mr. Bogart said it best, so let’s take a few minutes and listen to them talk about it.

Back with us? So the question is why is it so quiet this time around? Well, we now have 50 plus TDs who are personally not pressed with the same urgency to have fresh faced, and party endorsed running mates sharing their space on the field. But I hear you say aren’t the national executive in charge of deciding when conventions are to be held? True, however their view appears to be (this is my judgement alone) is that we should hold our fire until the election is called because depending on the circumstances in which the election happens it might have a material effect on the best panel of people to be selected. Were say a long-standing FF TD, who was in a constituency where FF were almost certain to lose at least one seat, to decide to retire rather than be rejected by the voters we might be better off selecting a candidate from their area as it will have freed up a lot of votes. That said we could do that anyway as the national exec retains the right to add or even drop candidates right up to the date of filing papers.

To this mix, there is the issue of quotas and increased representation for women on the ballot, (the issue of electing more women TDs is one for the voters) and I suspect the national executive intends upping considerably the number of women candidates even if necessary by going outside the party, at the last minute, to do so. They will be most tempted to do so over the heads of the party members currently thinking of running in constituencies especially where the chance of an additional FG seat is limited. It would increase the numbers but not at the risk of an unpopular interference in the convention process costing the party a seat.

So in Dublin North East and Central where only 1 seat is realistically in prospect (they’re 3 seats constituencies and even a halving of the FF vote would still seem them electing one) but where the party will feel compelled to run two, I can foresee the imposition of women candidates. While in Dublin north, where on a good day FG could be challenging with the Socialist Party for that 2nd FF seat, the candidate selected will be primarily with a view to winning the seat and not to satisfy the optics of an increased overall percentage of women candidates. A pity in my view, especially if it dissuaded existing party members women and men both from continuing their involvement.

Of course this fear of the other runner also forms a minor part of the backdrop to Seanad abolition sideshow. TDs as reps like the idea of having the back up and safety in numbers provided by additional party members in the Oireachtas, as individuals they hate the notion that there is some Senator located in their area waiting in the wings just ready for the fray. I don’t blame them, I’d hate it too but I’d not look to abolish the chamber because of it. That’s a discussion for another day.

An open letter on Seanad Reform

// October 21st, 2009 // 8 Comments » // Seanad, enda kenny, fine gael, seanad eireann, seanad reform

The proposal that Fine Gael policy should be to abolish the Seanad after the next election as announced by the party leader Enda Kenny leaves me in two minds. As a means to put down a marker to the government and the Seanad more generally that reform of politics must happen now or else, it is without equal. This reform can start this side of Christmas by extending the franchise beyond TCD and the NUI by legislation, and with notice of a referendum on wider reform to be put before the people by the time of the next summer recess. The choice is now very stark: reform or die.

I am quite sure that this idea will have widespread popular support amongst the public. Yet the mere popularity of an idea is no reflection on its merit. Though I understand and indeed share in the view that the charade of reform has gone on too long, I also believe that a genuine case can be made for the need for bicameral system given the enormously local focus that the current electoral system forces upon TDs. That is the work that TDs do and must do in order to be elected, and a reduction from 166 to 124 in the number elected in this way will not shift the burden sufficiently to allow major change to occur.

We should be in no doubt; the general public are debating ideas considerably more unthinkable than the mere abolition of the Seanad. If such debate continues to occur in places ignored or unheard by party politics then it will be to the detriment of us all. For the moment I would ask that the policy should be one of reform now or die, rather than die now. For that reason, I would ask that the policy to be adopted be with the proviso that it would be reviewed should substantive political reform be implemented prior to the next general election. We should say that we are planning to act but if the government were to implement, not simply announce or propose or set up a commission or look for another report, but actually implement reforms that will match the parameters of cost reduction, increased powers of scrutiny and compellability for committees as outlined over the last few days then we would be prepared to give it the chance to work. This has the advantage of throwing the focus back onto the lack of action by all the government parties and also sets an immediate clock ticking on the issue with concrete milestones that all the issue to be revisited to our advantage. If there is no move on the university seats by Christmas say then it becomes topical again, if there is no bill and referendum by the summer recess then the same. We can keep the pressure on the government at each step. Let us accept that the Seanad is now drinking in the last chance saloon but we should not be so rude as to eject it before it has finished its drink and had the chance to demonstrate, really demonstrate that it can change.

Yet as someone who stood independently for the Seanad in 2007 in large part on the issue of reform, I am minded that party members of all major Irish political parties have no substantive input into the formulation of party policy. Ard Fheiseanna of all hues have long passed into the realm of mere staged managed speaking and photo opportunities for election candidates. A process colluded in by the media who hype up the merest prospect of any real debate as a sign of in-fighting and division instead of the sign of vibrancy it really is. While a leader should and must have the right to initiate policy ‘on the hoof’ in reaction to events, no events have occurred in the last week requiring such a policy shift.

Now more than ever, we need politics to be a genuine battleground of ideas, new and, if long neglected, old. These ideas must be examined, debated, tested and contested at every step. Political parties exist because they are a means to reflect and express the collective views of their members, from the person at the branch level to the highest of our public representatives. After all, it is those members who have to argue the case for those views to the wider citizenry in the hard slog of canvassing, leafleting, and ultimately by standing as candidates for election. That is why it is necessary for there to exist some real means for their views to be heard in advance of most policy decisions. Party members, even elected representatives, should not be placed in a position of having to ‘like it or lump it’ when it comes to the adoption of policy. At the very least, the views of members should have the chance to be heard on policy.

I will say this, the fact that Fine Gael are the ones who stand to gain most in the next Seanad elections means the party can’t be accused as the government will be of changing the rules because they are going to lose out in the next elections.

Local Elections Predictions - 2009

// May 29th, 2009 // No Comments » // Fianna Fail, fine gael, green party, labour

I think that the share of the national vote will be as follows

FF will get 25%

FF will get 33%,

Greens 3%

Labour15%

SF 8%

Independents 15

I think that FF will stay just over the 250 seat mark. FG will gain about 20 plus seats, Labour would gain 30 plus,  SF will gain a half a dozen seats nationally but could lose a few high profile gains from last time in particular in Dublin where there has been so much churn in the candidates from 2004. Greens will drop under 10 seats. Independents to have a good day but some high profile people will lose out. I expect Michael ‘the stroke’ Fahy to lose and indeed at least one of the Healy Raes could lose out.

Time for Labour/FG to talk to John Gormley directly and cut a deal

// February 13th, 2009 // 3 Comments » // Fianna Fail, fine gael, irish times, labour, mrbi

By now most people have seen the results of the opinion poll from the MRBI published in the Irish Times. Moving beyond the mere numbers, it is clear that the government does not have the support of the public to act. It is time for someone from FG and Labour to approach John Gormley and if necessary cut a deal that would allow them to go softly, softly on the majority of the existing Green seats.

The problem for the Greens in the next election whenever it comes will not be whether they get 4% or 7% nationally but whether or not they get transfers. And if there are any Green candidates out there reading this who are thinking that FF transfers will see them home, either in the general election or more immediately in the upcoming local elections, then they need to wake up and smell the stale coffee of the FF core vote. It simply won’t come to their rescue. If they really value their policy agenda, their seats and the long term viablity of their party then they should withdraw now from a goverment that no one explicitly voted for and which now utterly lacks the mandate to act as a government need to given the difficulties we are faced with.

If you did happen to miss them then these are the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll in November are: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down 5 points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 24 per cent (up 10 point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up 1 point); Green Party, 4 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 9 per cent (down 4 points).