Mayoral predictions – how did we do?

// May 3rd, 2008 // No Comments » // london, mayoral election

The actual result in London Mayoral Election

Our prediction had Boris Johnson on 39 % Ken Livingstone on 37 %, which was reasonably close, within the margin of error for Boris at the worst. We did overstate Paddick on 14 % and Berry at just under 5 %. We were damn close with the BNP at 2.5 % (and that’s as close as we ever want to be to the BNP. And we understated the others at 1.5 % when they closer to 4%.

Local Elections England/Wales – how bad?

// May 2nd, 2008 // No Comments » // british politics, london, mayoral election, politics

Really bad, really, really bad. The beeb are still insisting on going more and more down the road graphically orientated tom foolery with Jeremy Vine when what they really need are Charlie McCreevy and Ivan Yates arguing over the direction of the transfers of the Ballydehob local bigwig on the anti fish scale tax party.

One problem for me is that they only report seats gains and losses not the % that a party got in which council area. With 1st past the post it is possible that a disaster decline can be masked or that a minor gain can translate into a large seat gain. The national vote share projection is some help but for the really nerdy amongst us (I’m saying us so I must be including myself in that number) we want to see how the % vote has changed in each council. And nowhere on the beeb site can I find that. And they appear to be completely at a loss as to how to report on the Mayoral count with the only semi useful quote being “With 27% of votes counted in each of the 14 electoral areas – Mr Johnson has the lead in 9 while Labour’s Ken Livingstone is ahead in five.” how big are the 9 areas compared to the 5 and ahead by what margin! God help me but with a few dozen Tallymen we’d have a projected first count at this stage on 27% of the vote counted, and we’d have some idea where the 2nd choices were going. And this in the birthplace of parliamentary democracy.

Update: according to the Guardian blog there are screens at the count centres that are giving the 1st preferences and 2nd choices as they are counted. So why is no one reporting the actual numbers? Do they think people can’t understand them?

Boris the blade or Red Ken

// May 1st, 2008 // No Comments » // Boris Johnson, Ken Livingstone, london, mayoral election, politics

While I’m technically a Croydonian by way of being a Mayday baby, I do on occasion social climb a tad by regarding myself as a Londoner by association. So by that reckoning I’m as entitled as anyone to be taking an interest in the mayoral election across the pond.

I would probably vote for Brian Paddick or Sian Berry No.1 and then give my No.2 to Ken Livingstone. I don’t agree entirely with everything Ken does but the city is in his heart. I think he has been proved correct about efforts like the limitations of the Public Private Partnerships in funding public works and also he has shown a willingness to embrace some aspects of the market like the idea of a bond issue for the Tube. Boris is a likeable enough bloke and would probably make for good company on a night out but that is no reason for vote for someone to have executive power, whether Boris or Bertie.

We seem to get few enough people who are proud of living in cities these days. For all our love of the arboreal or pastoral ideal, I think cities, properly run are the true apex of human civilisation. It’s not a popular view in the modern world and especially not in Ireland where everyone appears to want to live in the subrural splendour of the detached bungalow on the edgetown.

My Predictions? I’ve not had a good hit rate this year but sure why not…

Boris Johnson – 39 %

Ken Livingstone – 37 %

Paddick – 14 %

Berry just under – 5 %

BNP – 2.5 %

Others 1.5 %