Where could Labour have won?

// May 27th, 2007 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

Reflecting on Tommy Broughan comments and those of others whether in the meeja or the Labour party about the Rabbitte – Labour Strategy got me thinking about where the party could actually have won if they had pursued a more independent path and if as a consequence their % had been up.

In essence that would mean taking votes from FF candidates that would have come from those that would have wanted Bertie as Taoiseach. After all those that wanted Enda would be less inclined to vote for a more neutral Labour.

Kerry South – the key factor here I would reckon was Moynihan-Cronin’s decision to retire and then come back. While she was out of the picture others were knocking on doors and saying “vote for me”, it is hard to make up that gap once others have gotten the political mind share in a locality.

Meath East – This is a kind of split in that the FG vote seems to have been up too. Was Byrne’s vote down to geography? Strange thing is that Fitzgerald’s votes did not particularly go anywhere. They just sort of drifted off in various directions.

Dublin South Central – the problem for the Labour party here is the variety of left options who to be honest do not think much of Bertie or Enda. Here people have a choice between the left, the hard left, the far left and the “we’re so left we must be right” people.

Wicklow – well, the FG vote was up too so it could be argued that had the Labour party been even more anti FF that they might have secured that vote instead of it going to FG. It has to be said that Nicky Kelly’s more recent brushes with the law in relation to driving issues can’t have helped.

Tipperary North – more of a problem with the same old face I’m not so sure the locals are all that crazy about the self help crowd O’Meara is involved with.

Dublin North – again another old face though this time the brother. If they had gone for some new in Dublin North instead of the Ryan’s regarding it as a fiefdom.

In essence Labour could have been 2/3% higher nationally and not won anymore seats (bar Hannigan I reckon) unless the candidate selection issues about were addressed. In all bar one of these seats it was old familiar faces, perhaps too familiar faces that were running.

So, I think the problem for Labour wasn’t the accord it was the failure to prevent FF getting votes instead of Labour’s failure to get them.

I’ll be FF are glad we don’t have E-Voting machines now!

// May 26th, 2007 // 2 Comments » // Uncategorized

Imagine what the reaction that would have come from many quarters if this result had happened with E-Voting machines in use. I would think that a good many people might have suspected some tampering.

Just goes to show the benefit of some transparency in the democratic process.

How to go about forming an FG lead government.

// May 26th, 2007 // 1 Comment » // Uncategorized

I know most people will think this belongs in the realm of pure fantasy, but at this point in time we are looking at FG 51 + Lab 20 + Grn 6 = 77

If the PDs decide they have no future as a party then moves should be made to do the following

• Elect Mary Harney as Ceann Comhairle, on the proviso that she would step down in advance of the next election allowing Tony Gregory to be elected as Ceann Comhairle securing his support. It would appear that Mary Harney does not wish to be leader of a party that requires considerable rebuilding and also that she was always planning on leaving the Oireachtas at the end of this the 30th Dail.
• Get Noel Grealish to join FG with the certainty of being an FG candidate for Galway West next time.
• Do a deal with Jackie Healy Rae which includes making one of his sons a Taoiseach’s nominee for the Seanad giving him the profile to succeed Jackie next time out.
• Sort out some packages that would satisfy McGrath and Lowry over the lifetime of the government.

That would give FG 52 + Lab 20 + Grn 6 = 78 + TG1 + ML1 + BF1 + JHR1 +FMcG = 83

I would agree that this at this point in time might not seem the most likely of outcomes but those measures should be explored because while they might not result in a government lead by FG this year we may yet see one in the next 2/3 years.

Bev may have to step down inside the next 12 months if the RTe suit for bankruptcy is successful. This would result in a bye election that FG might well win if it were to happen when such a result would lead to a Mayo Taoiseach.

It is noteworthy that while the last few Dails have had no bye elections due to members passing away that some such as Jackie Healy Rae, Mary O’Rourke and Michael Woods are, as the sayings goes, getting on in years indeed all three are over 70 at this point. That is not something I’m exactly wishing for but we need to be realistic about the possibilities that might arise during the lifetime of the Dail.

So I am basically saying that I think that a new FF lead government might well not last 5 years. Of course my predictions on the election results were pretty off the mark so I will hold my hands up and admit my credibility on this might be viewed by some as being weak.

Was this ‘the’ local general election?

// May 26th, 2007 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

I will post more on this, but it occurs to me that in many ways this was a very local general election.

Minor moments of the election – part 1

// May 25th, 2007 // 1 Comment » // Uncategorized

1) Seeing SF outpoll the PDs in Dublin North.

2) Seeing RockofCashel being excluded from the 3rd count.

By moments, I don’t necessarily mean moments of delight (though the first one certainly was) more that they are moments that will stick in my memory.

Are we all focused on the wrong debate as the turning point of the election?

// May 25th, 2007 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

Given the substantial increase in the FG vote and seat return from that vote and the disappointing performance of the smaller parties, might it be that it wasn’t the Leader’s Debate part 2 with Bertie and Enda that was the turning point of the election but rather the part 1 version with Pat, Gerry, Michael and Trevor.

Just my initial thoughts.

Dude, was I ever wrong!

// May 25th, 2007 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

That’s all I’m saying for now, I’m going to head over to some mates and rehash the whole thing and watch how it unfolds.

Election predictions – the whole shebang

// May 24th, 2007 // 1 Comment » // Uncategorized

I did the old election prediction thing a while back and I think I’m going to revise it here.

Election snippets.

// May 23rd, 2007 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

Got handed a “Central News” this morning, for a moment I thought the Flash might wheeze by too. In actuality it turned out to be a Fianna Fail newsheet.

Curious thing is there no moment of Mary Fitzpatrick while there are two pictures of Cyprian Brady. The rest is pure Bertie. I have to wonder what Mary Fitzpatrick did to ould Bertie. I’ve seen her and Cyprian on the box, and she is head and shoulders above him, to be quite honest with you.

And I thought there was some GAA rule about staying out of politics, there are two clubs featured in this particular freesheet. I recall some GAA diktat a month or two back involving a SF candidate somewhere.

Shane McEntee posters are along the North Circular road/New Cabra road. Not as far afield as those of Michael D. Higgins I guess.

Ivor Callely is making a last minute conversion to being a yellow belly supporter, with loads of posters. None which contain the relevant contact details as per the electoral act.

Medical advances & waiting times

// May 18th, 2007 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

Cyprian Brady or someone from FF in the last week was talking about how the medical advances were one of the things the government could count amongst their achievements. I’ve got to say that in my view unless the state was funding or doing the research themselves then I can’t see how they can look for credit for them.

And in there lie some interesting tales I’m sure as to where we should be allocating the real credit for reductions in some of the waiting times for some treatments. Taking just one example, we have grown used to seeing the Taoiseach talking up the reduction in waiting times for cardiac patients but would it not be more accurate to suggest that advances in stents for example are the real reason why people have to wait less time for treatment.