Archive for February, 2008

What else could FF have done with that 30 grand?

// February 25th, 2008 // No Comments » // Bertie Ahern, irish politics, Mahon tribunal

Paying back money is a complicated business at the best of times. Most of us lending a tenner to a mate would simply expect the tenner back at some point but were we to lend the same person a few grand to start a business that makes it big or even back a horse that ends up coming in at long odds we would not be completely unreasonable to expect something more in return that the principal. That in part is why interest exists because someone else is doing something profitable with your money, you are in turn not able to do a similarly profitable thing. There is a name for it that escapes me at present.

Now the trustees of FF in Dublin Central must surely have had a duty of care to their members to ensure that their interests were protected in any financial dealings they had. Not to be leaving their hard fund raised cash lying about the back of a car or not to be backing 3 legged horses. Their money had to be kept safe and yet relatively liquid after all you never know when an election might happen. Lending someone money to buy a house who it seems was not able to borrow this money from a bank (after all that would have been the natural first port of call for most of us wouldn’t it?) would appear to mean that person would not be able to get that money back in a hurry if it was needed so this was not the most liquid investment. And then there is the apparent absence of any loan agreement which means the transfer was not very secure, after all in the absence of any paper work it would be entirely possible for Ms. Larkin to claim the money was a gift or charitable donation, a dig out if you will.

Now what other options did the FFers have well. If say the FF organisation in Dublin Central had bought the house and then continued to rent the place out to the aunty Larkin’s it would have solved their immediate accommodation crisis while also ensuring that any increase in property values would have accrued to the people who had provided the principle. Instead Ms Celia Larkin is the sole individual to benefit from this transaction in terms of capital appreciation and all for the sum of 30K plus what 30K might have earned resting in a regular bank account. I wonder if Ms. Larkin charged her aunts rent, if she was registered as a landlord, if they claimed for rent relief or rent allowance from their tax/pensions? All interesting avenues of investigation I’m confident that members of the fourth estate are pursuing as I write.

And just imagine if you will how much more secure the FF organisation in Central would be if they had taken my hypothetical advice above and now had a property worth at least 500K instead of 30K plus bank interest which is what they have. Rather than the €115, yes €115, on deposit that some are now claiming they have post the election.

Where should we put the Seanad?

// February 16th, 2008 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

Initial reports that the Seanad had to move because of increasing evidence of excessive decrepitude and what one person described as strange noises were countered when the director of the chosen new venue at the Natural Museum or the dead zoo as it is known to many said it would be impossible for him to move all exhibits out in time.

I thought we should open a book for suggestions of alternatives Dublin venues for the Seanad. Indeed why does it have to be in Dublin or Ireland for that matter. Let your mind roam free.

Feel free to post your suggestions and let’s see how prophetic they turn out to be:

Here are couple of ideas to start ye off.

1) The Gateway factory off the M1 is still available.

2) Parts of Tullamore’s new hospital wing are still vacant I believe and with the staffing cutbacks unlikely to be on-line for some time.

3) Many of the buildings selected for decentralisation are lying idle

4) There are a considerable number of advance factories dotted around the rural landscape.

Standing about gawking isn’t a form of helping

// February 15th, 2008 // 3 Comments » // Uncategorized

I frequented the “Arts” last night and after the bows had been taken, the lights went up, and people started to leave the call went up for a doctor as it seems one of the patrons has lost consciousness or at least was quite unwell. The theatre was still about 60% full at this point and while a couple of people, with one hopes some first responder* training, moved in. The vast majority of the audience simply stood where they were, in the aisles, in the corridors leading to the exits, basically wherever they could get a good look.

It might be news to people (and these were almost all adults I’d give an age or late 30s if not older) but standing about getting in the way while being unable to render any assistance yourself is

a) no help to anyone
b) going to may actively prevent trained people from coming to the assistance of the person in need of help.

So let’s all remember if you can’t help then either try and find someone who can help or do what you can to get out of the way of those who might be able to assist and are trying to get in. Crowding in to get a good look is of no comfort to someone who comes round from having a weakness or seizure in public to know that several hundred people stood about make sure they had all the details to tell when they got home.

*I think that’s American terminology but it fits well enough.

Guardian Blogger gets taken to task

// February 14th, 2008 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

Poor, poor Max. I wonder if he travels through Ireland or drinks some Guinness will he be eligible for the Irish blog Awards next year?

Update: For full disclosure I should say I came across this while having a piece of p.ie for lunch.

Another first for election ’08? Senator vs. Senator?

// February 13th, 2008 // 2 Comments » // primaries, senate, US elections, US politics

One aspect of 2008 election race which has slipped all our notice is that this time irrespective of whether Obama or Clinton is the nominee for the Democrats that this is going to be the first election in which the candidates are members of the Senate. None of the main candidates of the main parties (McCain, Clinton, Obama) has ever served in a executive position before whether as Governor, President or VP.

It has been said that it is particularly hard for members of the Senate to run and win as they tend to have voting records with which their opponents can bash them over the head with along with a Governor/President/Veep being able to claim exclusive credit for initiative X

I’m going to check it out in more detail but so far I’m back in the 1800s and still no similar race in sight.

Update: back to McKinley in 1896 so far and can’t find a Senator vs. Senator contest.

Update further: Yesterday evening I went all the way back and could not find a Presidential general election which was contested by two members of the Senate. So yep this is a first.

President Mary White?

// February 11th, 2008 // 5 Comments » // Ireland, irish politics, mary white, senate

Part 1

Part 2 – you could probably skip the first 20 secs of Padraic White talk.

The quality of the video isn’t fantastic I will admit but the content is just priceless. I’m inclined to produce a Mystery Science Theatre 3000 version in short order.

The Manky derby

// February 10th, 2008 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

I have to say that the old style ManU strip really makes one think it is a proper game of footie. Goes to show for me that damage the newer strips with the tassels and sponsor nonsense have robbed the game of some of the

Being a Croydonian and by extension a Londoner I’ve always viewed the more provincial derbies in the league as something lesser more local contests. The sun on the grass and the colour on display (maybe it was the limited palette that made more of an impression) really made me think for the first time in a while that this was a proper match I was watching. The crowd holding their scarves aloft added to that yesteryear feeling. Not a bad game either.

Edwards withdrawl – the untold story

// February 7th, 2008 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

I have only recently become aware of who it is that John Edwards favours as the democratic nominee.

Telling isn’t it…

Hillary vs Who? and What?

// February 6th, 2008 // 1 Comment » // clinton, mccain, republican party, US elections, US politics

My ha’penny on Super Duper Tuesday.

Hillary is going to be the nominee for the Democrats. There I’ve said it. I know loads of people think that Obama has loads of momentum after the last few weeks and that he is well placed now but the fact remains he has fallen short and he need really big wins in really big states, exactly the type of place he didn’t get close to winning last night. It seems that where the Dems are weakest he has been able to gee up the base more. States that have been so red that declaring yourself a Democrat is accompanied by a coming out party and the number of a sponsor.

Obama has to win a clean sweep of the Chesapeake Primaries (Maryland, D.C. and Virginia) next week or else Clinton will simply moving further ahead of him. By March 4th (the old Super Tuesday) Obama would be requiring landslides in the big states after in order to draw level, and I can’t see that happening. Some might say that the surge came too late but it might also be that it simply made him viable.

I expect both camps to play nice over the next few weeks as the idea of having a ticket which has Obama on as Veep sinks in, perhaps even with the hint being dropped that he might get to run in 4 years time. If he can bring out the same youth vote, then it could have a big impact in the Congressional races too. It hasn’t been done quite this way before but a person on the ticket who plays up their advisory role and ability to assist in agenda setting has happened before and it was Hillary herself who talked up her role with Bill. One of the benefits to being VP for Obama is that he does haven’t to say or decide anything allowing him to sidestep many contentious issue that he would have to take a side on in the Senate, the downside is that he is tied to her performance in office not his own.

So despite the initial impression that the Democrats are going to I think their race is almost settled. As for the incumbent party, oh dear

Republicans -

The talk seems to be that McCain is the presumptive nominee and that it is all over bar the shouting. I actually think they’re the party with problems that will right the way run to the convention. and remember they have the shorter run from the convention to election day. Usually a benefit but not if you have a pie fight live on television that gets replayed for the first 3 weeks of the campaign proper.

For the Republicans there is a different problem winner takes all states keeps the game alive in that candidates can dream/project/hope for marginal wins in the states that get them up the delegate numbers. McCain is on 559 which while well ahead of the others individually is only 265/169/16 = 109 ahead of them all together.

The problem for McCain is that while he is the candidate to win over the independents required to secure victory in November, he can’t be confident of the south. He wasn’t able to break 40% in any of the southern states that have voted yesterday and that means if at least some of the 60% who voted for someone else (include 10% for Thompson in Tennessee) decide to simply stay home then he is in trouble. The Republican don’t have a solid southern strategy this time especially if someone runs ads repeating the Republican attacks against him regarding pro-choice and immigration.

The difficulty the republican find themselves in is entirely of their own making since no one told the religious right/moral majority that the Republican party is also a coalition of interests and that while they were a significant part and indeed the single most numerous part of the party in recent years that they were not a majority and had no right

Do not bet against the republicans having a war over the convention as the religious try and create a platform that McCain won’t run under. Is it more likely common sense will prevail yes but is it a possibility undoubtedly. If the RR/MM think the election is already lost to the party they may come to the conclusion that the convention and campaign should be about what the party is to become rather than chasing after elected office that is speeding away from them.

Super Tuesday

// February 4th, 2008 // 3 Comments » // Super Tuesday, US politics

I know my record is all over the place at this stage but I’m going to throw these out there just so I can say “I completely got that wrong”.

I think Obama should take Georgia and Illinois handily enough and may just swing
California,
Colorado
oddly enough Utah,
Missouri and
Alabama.

That would leave Hillary with

Arizona
Connecticut
Deleware
New York
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Tennessee

and the greater number of delegates but not enough to close out the race and there are big states to come like Ohio, Texas, Penn.

Romney may well take California but McCain is going to win too many other states for it to matter, if Huckabee had made this about who gets to be VeeP, he might have swung some more Romney voters in the South.