Where did the money go? The hidden secret of NAMA

// March 31st, 2010 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

With all the talk of toxic loans and excessive prices being paid in land and property deals up and down the country it appears to be forgotten for the most part that someone, somewhere at the end of the chain got paid those vast sums. And no one appears to want to ask about them. The road from bad decisions at Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide to approve loans on dubious grounds to friends and follow traveller on the road to eternal wealth, paved by magicking up money from nowhere ends with those who made vast profits selling assets. They were the last ones to get paid and hence see the money in real life. Yet we’re not going to talk about that, cos that moves the discussion away from the losers (who we’re expected to bailout) to the winners who appear to have gone to ground.

Take the Irish Glass bottle site, as covered on Finfacts, theyt noted that “the DDDA an Irish State agency was among the purchasers while the owner was the Dublin Port Company, a private limited company owned by the State.” So the Dublin Port Company and a company called South Wharf ended up splitting a price of €412 million, what did they do with it? Where did it go? And there are any number of similar cases across the country. How come it’s not in circulation for re-investment, is it buried under the tallest mattresses in Christendom somewhere?

We are all aware of illustrative examples where land (like that parcel in Athlone) that might now be valued at rock bottom prices of say 600K for which a price of €30 plus million was needed to purchase will end up going into NAMA but what about the person who pocketed the €30 million? What did they do with it? Loans weren’t simply given out and then the cash created burnt (unless the KLF at back in action), the fact is that most of the money so loaned was spent within Ireland buying property here and much of that cash should still be in the hands of Irish citizens. Indeed a good portion of it is probably lying about in the bank accounts of the same banks we are bailing out or invested elsewhere. Some might have been used to buy shares in the banks, if so the money moved on to those who sold the shares.

Windfall and more particularly wealth taxes have an awful reputation and rightly so but at a time when the citizens are on the hook for perhaps an additional €70 billion in national debt it is worth considering whether or not we can claw back at least some of the money paid over. It is ironic that the capital gains tax on these excessive profits were at a rate lower than the average PAYE schmuck pays. I can understand the idea that some element of capital gains should be lower than the marginal income tax as there is a risk involved in capital investment but to apply the same rate to all levels of capital reward irrespective of the amount is nuts. A Progressive tax system should be progressive across the board not just on earned salary income. But is anyone going unmask the winners from the property boom or will a myth that we’re all losers continue to gain traction.

What was ‘best’ about it?

// March 30th, 2010 // No Comments » // blog awards, blogawards

I’m coming late to the Annual Irish Blog Awards Post Mortem Car Crash, but there are a number of basic points. (1) there is a process but no one knows what it is, it’s the Coke secret formula and KFC magic recipe. (2) any criticism of the process or awards winners draws the wrath of the clique down upon you.

The questions that anyone would ask about a winner is what ‘Besty’ quality did they have that made it the best? How might a blog seek to be ‘best’ next year or is that trying too hard disqualifies? What made it best? If it is simply to be taken on trust that some judges, somewhere, somehow made this decision then I think that’s a worthless process no better than the one used to select popes. “We thought he was the popeist candidate so there!”, and what qualities does a person need to be pope? “Err… he needs to be popelike” and so on ad infinitum. They were the best because they were the best but we can’t exactly tell you what the best is.

A poster on Head Rambles raised a couple of interesting points which I responded to and which in the best traditions I’m going to recycle here. There are rumours that judges were being ‘approached’ one year but that needs to be viewed with a somewhat jaundiced eye. I suspect those claims originate from around the same time he was claiming that he was himself being ‘harassed’ by people when that was not the case. I know this because I was one of the people he claimed was harassing him (by reading his blog apparently!). It was a stressful time for him with the hassle of organising the awards along with the diagnosis of his MS so flying off the handle isn’t entirely unexpected but false claims are false none the less. So I’d not use claims from that time as support for the idea that judges for the final rounds must be always anonymous. Indeed, I recall reading last year that the scoring sheets for the Web Awards were to be made public and than thought that the same might happen with the blog awards in response to the points raised last year but that idea seemed to fade away too.

“Also, if you publicise what specific aspects are being judged, you risk a previously ‘blah’ blogger fixing these specific things for the judging time period, which isn’t fair!”

The problem is that aren’t people meant to be judging the blog over the course of the year, it’s the best blog from 2009 not the best blog for June and November of 2009. And certainly not that people would up their game for the Jan-Mar of 2010 when their content is meant to be off limits for the judging period. I thought, as I’m sure do most, that blogs were being judged on what they had done not what they were doing right now. Problem is we’ve been down this road over inconsistency about dates and what criteria is used before and nothing has been done about it.

I would, also, have thought there would be more than 4 aspects that a blog would be judged on, not 15 or 20 cos people have lives and a limited amount of time but surely more than 4. There is so little information in the public domain about what the process actually is. I can think of more than that off the top of my head, it’s a blog not newspaper column so allowing comments and interacting with those commenting should count for something, that’s 2. Frequency of posting, one brilliant post a year shouldn’t win you best blog, best post sure but not best blog. Relevancy to the topic for the categories should be a factor not an overarching one but important. The Look and Design of the site, ease of access, and that’s 4 before we get to the quality of the writing.

Competitions that have judges typically make them known, at a minimum after the fact but normally before. The current IBA process is like e-voting, you the punter, have to just take it on trust that the inner workings are fair to all concerned. The work of judging is hard and time consuming yet I think it does a disservice to those who do it that the same effort appears not to be put into ironing out any flaws that people point out in the process. It’s a great night out for loads of people, and it would seem to me that the bulk of the work goes into that with the process of how the awards themselves are decided is a comparative afterthought. And that’s the pity.

As for the response of the core of the IBA clique (and this again proves there is one) they are by now well practised with their default arguments that if you’re not involved as judge or organiser you can’t criticise the process, that anyone making any complaint is automatically a begrudger or just jealous, that’s it’s all just a bit of fun (so why seek press coverage then, the Puck Fair committtee isn’t sending out press notices about the Bonnie Baby competition), or the new one that if the critic is male “your a misogynist.” The process is a mess and that’s not because beaut.ie won, it was mess last year when someone else won for 2008. I’ve no idea if Beaut.ie is the best blog from last year, I don’t know why Beaut.ie was selected or why they shouldn’t have been last year, and after all this I still don’t. Which is a pity.

Congratulations to Slugger O’Toole

// March 29th, 2010 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

A well deserved win for the Slugger team, the range of debate and the quality of the contributions in the past year was of a consistently high standard and all that takes a fair effort on the part of the various posters* and those commenting too. The culture of the site has evolved to be one that is about letting everyone have their ‘spake’ provided they respect the rights of others to do so to. And that’s down to the higher ups that set the tone. So a great big ‘nice one’ to everyone on-board the good ship Slugger O’Toole. The term ‘a talking shop’ is often times thrown about a term of abuse but talking is good as Mr Hoskins used to say and Jaw-jaw is better than War-War.

* I’ve contributed a few pieces for slugger over the last 12 months mostly from a southern political interest.

Where are the FG conventions?

// March 29th, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

This time 5 years ago the electoral spectrum across the country was alive with talk of the likely runners and riders at Fine Gael conventions as newly crowned and clearly impatient local election winners muscled their way into the running for the general election along with previous general election contestants who had lost seats and various other notables along with the un-notable too.

There was a definite logic to this sense of urgency as a party with only 31 TDs and a scattering of Senators and a massive (some said impossible) hill to climb to get back within reach of forming a government FG simply had to get as many people into the squad pool as quickly as possible.

Many conventions were announced in the spring of 2005 as being scheduled for the autumn of that year just in case Bertie Ahern decided to go after 4 years and to ensure that we gave candidates a good run up to polling in the summer of 2006. Prospective candidates were appointed as local area reps and they were given a run out over a course of ground (as I believe the horsey people term it) to see their form. I think Ms Bacall and Mr. Bogart said it best, so let’s take a few minutes and listen to them talk about it.

Back with us? So the question is why is it so quiet this time around? Well, we now have 50 plus TDs who are personally not pressed with the same urgency to have fresh faced, and party endorsed running mates sharing their space on the field. But I hear you say aren’t the national executive in charge of deciding when conventions are to be held? True, however their view appears to be (this is my judgement alone) is that we should hold our fire until the election is called because depending on the circumstances in which the election happens it might have a material effect on the best panel of people to be selected. Were say a long-standing FF TD, who was in a constituency where FF were almost certain to lose at least one seat, to decide to retire rather than be rejected by the voters we might be better off selecting a candidate from their area as it will have freed up a lot of votes. That said we could do that anyway as the national exec retains the right to add or even drop candidates right up to the date of filing papers.

To this mix, there is the issue of quotas and increased representation for women on the ballot, (the issue of electing more women TDs is one for the voters) and I suspect the national executive intends upping considerably the number of women candidates even if necessary by going outside the party, at the last minute, to do so. They will be most tempted to do so over the heads of the party members currently thinking of running in constituencies especially where the chance of an additional FG seat is limited. It would increase the numbers but not at the risk of an unpopular interference in the convention process costing the party a seat.

So in Dublin North East and Central where only 1 seat is realistically in prospect (they’re 3 seats constituencies and even a halving of the FF vote would still seem them electing one) but where the party will feel compelled to run two, I can foresee the imposition of women candidates. While in Dublin north, where on a good day FG could be challenging with the Socialist Party for that 2nd FF seat, the candidate selected will be primarily with a view to winning the seat and not to satisfy the optics of an increased overall percentage of women candidates. A pity in my view, especially if it dissuaded existing party members women and men both from continuing their involvement.

Of course this fear of the other runner also forms a minor part of the backdrop to Seanad abolition sideshow. TDs as reps like the idea of having the back up and safety in numbers provided by additional party members in the Oireachtas, as individuals they hate the notion that there is some Senator located in their area waiting in the wings just ready for the fray. I don’t blame them, I’d hate it too but I’d not look to abolish the chamber because of it. That’s a discussion for another day.

I dreamed a dream

// March 27th, 2010 // No Comments » // irish politics

If we’re in the realm of revealing dreams I had a dream the other night in which someone referred to the P.S.N.I. as being the R.U.Kea. Which sounds strangely good to me ears even if I don’t agree with the sentiment.

An less than Occasional Guide to Irish Politics: The Political Blogger

// March 26th, 2010 // 4 Comments » // Uncategorized

He (and it’s almost certainly a he) is the self styled outsider on Irish politics, more often than not left leaning though with the odd libertarian fly in the ointment. Occasionally might work in PR or could have had a proper job in industry. Has an opinion on just about everything in sight and if presented with an issue he has never encountered before (what health coverage are Aliens – the real 10ft tall slimy green kind- entitled to, at the taxpayer’s expense, while visiting Ireland as part of a fact finding mission) is prepared to make one up on the spot just to ensure that his views fill the air. Has read a few books on politics and is inclined to refer to them repeatedly, PJ O’Rourke’s Parliament of Whores is often a touchstone though largely because he likes to say Whores in a genteel company without mentioning Tiger Woods. Will link to people who once nodded to him that time he was in on the RTe or TV3 campus, though he was merely an audience member and didn’t succeed in getting to ask a question but the woman next to him did.

He has even run himself or managed the campaign of someone in the occasional election outing but was never in any danger of coming within an arse’s roar of holding public office. Might even still be a member of a political organisation but is almost certainly on the outer fringes of influence, or as he might term it ‘working away in the background’. Likes to pretend he enjoys having the access for ‘a quiet word’ with real political people of significance and can be found in pubs on the night of an Ard Fheis or public debates pointing out those parts of his leaders speech which he effectively wrote, or directly influenced or at least suggested something along similar lines to. “Look how he focused on saying we’re a team, great!” But brushes off the fact that practically the entire party had been saying much the same for years up to that point.

Takes to running offside or what he terms ahead of the pack on issues of public concern. Indeed, he will frequently make a lot of sense but for some reason the public just don’t get it. Or don’t read it or even know he exists. And somehow they manage to contentedly go about their lives!

Desperately wants someone to develop a speech plug-in to add to his blog which will read his words back to him, and perhaps others if they stumble across his writing, in his own voice. Usually sufficiently self deprecating not to take himself or his views too serious. After all, politics isn’t about anything important like how we get to live out our lives or indeed how we face death. Nothing major really.

*Done in honour of the weekend that is in it and in homage to the excellent series that Jason O’Mahony has been running for a while now, I offer one that he is probably too shy or polite to add himself and which was prompted in part by the most recent one. Any resemblance to anyone alive or indeed writing here is entirely coincidental.

Neil Kinnock’s ‘grotesque chaos’

// March 25th, 2010 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

I was reminded of this recently and then Derek Hatton turned up on This Week, last week. So I thought I’d include it here as we’ve become so wary of passion in public speaking that people are almost blown away when they see even a hint of it.

Is Michael McDowell considering a run for the Seanad?

// March 24th, 2010 // 1 Comment » // declan ganley, Seanad, seanad eireann

Reading his interview with the Sindo a few weeks back many would have wondered at his reversal of his long held position over the role and need for the Seanad, then Jason ponders if he could have a future role in Irish politics as a kinder gentler Michael. Though it was queried who could he run for and  where might he run. After all unlike Nixon he couldn’t run for an equivalent lower office such as governor of California because we don’t have them. Mayor of Dublin is likely to be too administrative for someone of the policy inclination of Michael McDowell.

From those seeds I began to wonder if this means that he could consider a run via the university panels for the Seanad. As someone who ran (and might do so again) the biggest single problem is name recognition, even above that of cost. Michael McDowell starts with that as a given. He might be seen by some as a divisive figure and not likely to be that transfer friendly but if he polled reasonably over 12% he would be well placed to get a seat based on previous elections and where else would you get elected in a 3 seater with that.

In other Seanad related matters in recent weeks, we’ve been Feargal Quinn up his profile with an interview in the Sunday Times along with his TV show on rescuing/revamping small retailers. I wonder if he has sensed something in the wind too.

Convert % of bank deposits into Bank Equity?

// March 22nd, 2010 // 1 Comment » // anglo-irish, bank bailout, bank of Ireland, brian lenihan, irish politics

Could we, overnight, convert a % of deposits into equity for the banks? Or is this simply a bonkers notion? Say 2.5% of all deposits under €20,000 which was the previous limit up to September 2008 and say 5% from €20,000 to €100,000 per depositor per institution and 8% of deposits over that level. If the banks were to commit to buying back the shares plus interest so issued as profits allow over a 10/20 year time frame, might this not be a better first port of call rather than all tax payers having to fund the bank bailout via state borrowings? After all those with the largest deposits have benefited most from the state bank guarantee without it they could have lost a lot more than 8%.

Or might we suggest that the banks do this themselves in September of this year by repaying the money given by the state when the guarantee runs out and could reasonably be expected to be modified? Of course the problem with such a notion is that any announcement of it would have to apply instantly or people with the most would withdraw their deposits.

Is Brian Lenihan off his game?

// March 11th, 2010 // 4 Comments » // brian lenihan, democracy, Fianna Fail

I suppose someone at some point has to ask the awful question but this incident whereby the government forgot to oppose a Labour party amendment to the Finance bill and following on from the manner of his defence of Willie O’Dea which struck many people as not being typical of Brian Lenihan and the fact that Martin Cullen has raised the issue publicly of the impact of certain types of medication on a person’s ability to perform their normal duties in the same way as before, is Brian Lenihan now showing signs of his performance being affected by his treatment?

We, the public are not privy to the form or the duration of his treatment, if it is the case that the worst of it is over and a minor slip here and there is going to be the extent of the impact then fair enough let him continue in office but if it has got some more months to run (in particular into the summer months when preparation of the budget will be underway) then we have to ask is the upcoming reshuffle the right opportunity to make a change. At the very least someone senior in the cabinet has to be designated as his 2nd.

I know people will say that’s I’m merely trying to score political points but I honestly can’t think of anyone more capable in FF than Brian Lenihan to be in the position of MoF at the moment. And while I don’t agree with much of the detail and some of the substance of what he is doing, he is, when playing at the top of his game, incredibly able. The question remains is he playing at the top of his game?