Like all good like electoral nerds, I haver a model in my head of how the electorate will behave once the election is called. It’s a constantly evolving mass of numbers and projections.
My overview of the seat numbers that would be returned from constituencies based on the notion I’ve previously advanced of the 81% election (that basically FF, FG and Labour would finish on or around 27% each) gives me a result in which FF get 43 seats, FG 58, Labour 45, SF 8, Independents 9 and thge Socialist Party 2. That is in the scenario where the Greens are completely unable to hold onto any seats. If the trio of Gormley, Gogarty and Sargent were able to shore up the bulk of their ’07 1st preference votes then Labour and SF would be down 2 and 1 respectively.
I hope to get a chance later in the week to go through each of the constituencies. However, I would note up front where I differ from prior analysis from Adrian Kavanagh is that I’ve not simply taken the raw numbers from 2007 and modified them to reflect the changed opinion polls but have sought to include the local factors and personalities that would be likely to be on the ballot paper. Much of this is necessarily in the form of what might be considered political soothsaying or as the esteemed Mr. Spock might call it “my best guess”.