The technicalities of technical groups

// February 27th, 2011 // 1 Comment » // GE11

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It would seem to me that the ULA, SF and FF will be able to form technical groups meaning 3 responding to the government, and perhaps a group made up of former FFers (Healy-Rea,Fleming, Mattie Mcgrath, Joe Behan (if he squeezes back in), Grealish, ) and others. And maybe the right and populist independents might sort out something.

All of which will have the effect of watering down FF’s reactions. Also, I’m not sure of the protocol but just who is the official leader of the opposition is it the leader of the largest party or the person who gets the next highest vote for Taoiseach? Cos that could be Gerry Adams.

Wow!

// February 27th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

Not much of a title but I’m still somewhat stunned by the election result, both the overall picture and the various individual contests. Fianna Fail gone from Kerry, (though it’s likely we will have 2 former FFers as independents) and going so close in the likes of Dublin North Central for a 2nd seat ending the Haughey and Lemass dynasties in the process, and Dublin North West where we could look to challenge again next time.

This is the map taken from the RTe site of the 1st preference vote, showing which party got the highest first preference in each constituency.

This was my, perhaps less than generous,  reaction to the announcement that John ‘the bull’ O’Donoghue was being eliminated or politically castrated.

A minor but significant polling point to consider.

// February 26th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

So with the RTE exit poll published of FG 36.1 Lab 20.5%, FF 15.1, SF, 10.1%, Greens 2.7% Others 15.5.

There is a minor change in the party order that could be significant in terms of seats never before has the greatest party been so far ahead but also as transfer receptive to one of the other two big vote getters. FF traditionally got 40% or thereabouts but FG were there between them and Labour to soak up transfers. This time FF are behind Labour but unlikely to transfer in sufficient numbers for Labour candidates to catch FG candidates while Labour are also transferring to FG where the contest is being FG and FF. So don’t be surprised if the 36% instead of giving the mid to low 70s that some are predicting starts to creep back up closer to 80 seats by tomorrow morning.

Some last minute predictions

// February 26th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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It is just possible that FG might get 3 seats in Cork South West and Limerick County (if Collins FF is under 19% this is very doable), and we could see 3 FGers in Laois Offaly.

My prediction from two nights before polling still stands of, for what it is worth,

FG38%/FF20%/Lab17%/SF10%/Grn1.8%/ULA3.2%/Ind10%

I suspect transfers from FG to Labour will be down somewhat on the usual level, I’ve met loads of Fine Gael voters who are seriously ticked off over the Labour tactics in the last 2 weeks. Fine Gael the party of the Just Society, which actually made the case to middle Ireland for the introduction of divorce on two occasions, that changed the public mindset about divorce and which frankly ensured that Irelanfd in the 80s with twice the unemployment rate of the UK had nothing like the social problems or unrest like Toxteth or Brixton is being painted as an entirely neo-Thatcherite party by. Sure there are right wingers in FG just there are pseudo or near unreconstructed communists in Labour but to characterise FG as being solely that sort of party is inaccurate and frankly gets up the backs of older FGers. My parents who would normally vote Labour immediately after FG almost by instinct were very…well, hurt is the only word I can think of… by the behaviour of Labour and its leadership over the last while and had my dad’s vote not already been in the post he would most probably have changed it. As it was I left my mother mulling over voting for an left leaning independent instead of the Labour candidate. Will this cost Labour some gains?

The swamping of the Fine Gael Facebook page

// February 23rd, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

It is amazing that those posting messages about Fine Gael suppposedly censoring comments on their Facebook page don’t bother to look back over the last few days where they will see any number of comments from people posting about Fine Gael supposedly censoring their comments which are clearly visible.  It is hard to tell where or even when precisely this story originated but it’s easy to understand why people are inclined to take the claims at face value despite no actual evidence being presented to show that censor of views is taking place. Like someone in a shopping centre screaming about a missing child we’re focused on finding the child despite none of us having ever seem the child in question before. So anyone who makes inquiries about the details is viewed as delaying the more urgent work of alerting everyone to the missing child, just as anyone asking about the detail in this case is viewed as supporting censorship.

So what is the current situation? There are loads of visible comments that are critical or negative about Fine Gael’s position on same-sex marraige and other topics that have been on the site for a few days now, so why would they be removing some comments, if indeed they were, and not others? From some of the supposedly removed comments that people have screen grabbed and linked back that I’ve looked at their content is for the most part abuse rather than any substantive point. Or they are cut and paste duplicates of the same question that has been asked and already answered, perhaps not to the satisfaction of those asking it but if those asking it are in disagreement with Fine Gael’s policy then they are never going to get an answer that is satisfactory.

What may be taking place is the filtering of how people choose to express themselves and not the substance of the views they are expressing, it might surprise some comments but on-line just as offline if you want to be taken seriously than swearing and vulgar abuse isn’t of much assistance in that regard.

If Fine Gael were censoring comments on the basis of the views being expressed then I would condemn that and say it was bang out of order, but if comments are being removed simply because they use considerably less than parliamentary language on what is a public page for a legitimate political party then that’s quite reasonable. I’ve yet to see evidence of reasonable comments that aren’t cut and paste duplicates being removed, and let’s face it most of those commenting haven’t seen that evidence either but they’re inclined to believe it is happening for reasons unrelated to what might or might not be happening with the page. It is possible for example that FG is using pre-moderation which means that posts don’t appear immediately but are queued for review and later posting once reviewed, the Irish Times and lots of sites do that. That does not mean views are being censored at all just that they don’t appear immediately. But I can’t be any more sure than the rest of those posting are about what precisely is happening, yet they are certain and are reacting to what they believe is certain.

Those supporting these tactics are in effect giving a green light to Cóir and the likes to engage in the same sort of reprehenisble swamping of discussion so as to paint Labour for example in a particularly negative and unrepresenative light. I could think to myself that this is a brilliantly conceived and executed attack by Labour Youth or an affliate but given how Labour’s campaign has gone to date that would be stretching crediblity.

I personally favour moving to full equality for same-sex marriage within the time frame of the next Dail, but I’d suggesting giving the civil partnership legislation some time to bed down first to ensure there are no legal channels or problems arisig from it. I think it is better to do this right than to rush it. But this swamping of the Fine Gael facebook page isn’t about the issue at all, it’s about people who aren’t inclined towards Fine Gael seeking to paint the party in a poor light in the last days of an election campaign.

That new Labour billboard ad

// February 22nd, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

This is one of the earlier mock ups that it was felt wasn’t blunt enough.

The secret plan to clear the deficit

// February 22nd, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

Image by Nomad@Live via Flickr

It’s March 18th and as the nation recovers by means of painkillers and big fries from celebrating the National day, the Taoiseach and Tanaiste begin a press conference. They announce that they believe they can half the time to reduce the deficit and that more surprisignly the means to do this has been agreed to by the opposition parties.

It’s to be called the FUall levy and it’s origins lie in the local election campaigns of 2009 when many of those canvassing noticed a tendency for a minority of the public to abuse canvassers with foul language and the mantra that they were all the same. This was a recurring topic of conversation amongst canvassers of all parties for months afterwards.

Then a little over 12 months on, the lighbulb moment occurs to a Green party TD, “Sure if we’re all the same and if they don’t care who gets in or what they do then why not take them at their word!” they spoke with their colleagues in government and then in opposition and the detail of the secret plan was hatched.

During the course of the canvassing effort to be underaken by all the main parties for the general election, note was to be made of which houses had delivered the most generic abuse and once this was cross referenced to ensure that those who reserved their bile for one particular party or other were removed, it was compared to the used electoral registers from polling day itself. From this a list was  drawn up of those who had been both abusive and dismissive of the entire electoral process and who had not bothered to vote, in the case of those who were working their passports and right to travel outside the state was to be revoked with immediate effect and a new 80% levy imposed on their earnings along with the removal of all allowances, for those who were not working their personal social welfare would (except in very unusual circumstances) in future to paid in vouchers redeemable in local stores for only staple foodstuffs.

The measures were expected to bring in 2.7 billion in additional taxes in the first year and save an ongoing 1350 million in social welfare payments. It was found that it was most frequently people with considerable assets who yet deemed themselves to be “ordinary people” that engaged in the most vitirolic abuse and the most able bodied of the long term unemployed who blamed everyone from foreigners taking their jobs despite not having worked in a decade, to politicians who had repeatedly sought to assist them in moving from anothe house they had wrecked that were the most of the view that it made no difference who they voted for.

At the next election turnout soared and constructive political engagement bloomed…

Should people voting for FG transfer to the Greens 1st?

// February 16th, 2011 // 4 Comments » // GE11

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Just wondering at the comments by John Gormley today, and some discussion on p.ie and considering that FG haven’t really be attacking the Greens much, more viewing them as an irrelevancy, is it possible that some Green seats could yet be saved.

Hypothetically speaking, if FG were to look like they might get close to forming a government on their own by getting in the mid to high 70 seat range, doesn’t it make sense that there might be a reasonably minded party with 3/4 seats that would be more amenable to policy input than wanting 4/5 ministries?

Wouldn’t it be better for FG to see Trevor Sargent, Eamon Ryan, Ciaran Cuffe to hang on than for Labour to get a 2nd seat either in Dublin North or South or Dun Laoghaire? This is of course if the option of additional FG seats isn’t a runner on election day, which can’t really be ruled out. I can’t see anyone explicitly calling for transfers for other parties at this stage. The time for accords and formal agreements is long gone but it would be worth considering dropping the odd hint or two that the Greens wouldn’t be the worst people to have as partners in government. I wonder if anyone will.

Do FG really need 40 pts for a majority?

// February 14th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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Every year in  the premiership a number of smaller teams set themselves the not inconsiderable task* of avoiding relegation with the hard number of 40pts as the target to be achieved. Some rare seasons you might need more than this, more often than not less will suffice but the hard target of 40pts has come to be engrained as the point of safety in the minds of players, managers and supporters like.

In Ireland the widely held belief is that you need a minimum of 40% of the 1st preference before you can even start beginning to think about an overall majority. But this is not a hard number, the number needed to get an overall majority has actually dropped considerably over the last few decades. There was a time when FF with 47/48% couldn’t get a majority due to the voting behaviour of the people and the toxicity of Charlie Haughey and the FF tribe to others. This changed over time as Bertie made the party much less transfer repellent, combined with more careful candidate selection. Yet this change could be about to work in the opposition direction also.

This election will be unusual for any number of reasons including most significantly of all, but to date unreported on, the likely elimination of front runner FF candidates who might in one scenario lock in more 1st preference votes than ever before thus lowering the number of votes need to win the last and 2nd last seat in many constituencies. This in turn could mean FG winning 80 seats from less than 40% of the 1st preference vote. Alternatively if some the outgoing FF TDs who didn’t lock in loads of 1st preferences were to trend more towards FG than we might have expected given the parties enmity down the years then this too might lower the final effective quota needed to win the last 2 seats. Why might those voting for FF transfer to FG, well, if the thesis were true that FF and FG draw a lot of support from the more conservative elements in Irish society then who do you think they would transfer to (if they transfer at all) in a choice between FG, Labour or SF?

Locked in votes would reduce what I term the final effective quota. The final effective quota differs from the quota in that if you exceed the quota then you are automatically elected but if you end up ahead of the last uneliminated candidate then you are deemed elected without exceeding the quota. Take Limerick in 2007 for example, the quota was 8230 but the last candidate was elected on 6966 making what appears the final effective quota just under 7,000 considerably lower the actual quota. In truth the final effect quota is not what the final candidate got but what they needed to get which is more than 5776, even less than the actual quota. All the last candidate needed to get was 5777 almost 2,500  vote less than the quota.

If there are more votes lost to non-transfers than usual then this effective final quota will be lower and thus seats could be won without getting remotely close to the quota. So in this election, we could see many more candidates than we might have expected getting elected without exceeding the quota.

* as a Palace fan avoiding relegation is practically my battle for a champions league place. We went down one year after finishing 4th from bottom because the Premier League was doing sizing from 22 to 20 teams. We also made it to the final 4 of the League and FA cups. So I’m not being sarcastic when I say that task is not inconsiderable.

A question of balance

// February 11th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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Last night we had another one of those eye of the beholder Vincent Browne moments. To set the scene, there was a review of the Fine Gael Manifesto with the panel consisting of two folks from a Labour/Left background, at least Mary Murphy had the decency to be up front about being a Labour party member,and one a centrist sceptic along with Leo Varadkar. And they were joined for a review of the papers by the sub from the UCD equality studies department, Marie Moran, who is there when Kathleen Lynch isn’t available*.

The moment came from the inability of Mary Murphy and Marie Moran to understand that the primary cause of ill-health in those in the more vulnerable social classes might not necessarily that they’re in living on a low income. Leo Varadkar wasn’t arguing that it wasn’t a factor at all in their situation but that in many cases the opposite is true that people are in poverty because they have a chronic illness that limits their ability to work or earn with sufficient regularity to move out of this vulnerability. Vincent then took his bias out for a run, in that laugh it off manner of his, by stating that Leo suffered from the disability of having studied medicine which he had compounded by his membership of Fine Gael**.

The problem for Mary and Marie, and others who thought this was great gas and that Leo was having his ass handed to him on the plage, is that they are looking at a table of data and feeling that it has given them some conclusive insight in people’s life; when all it has done, much like wikipedia, is offer pointers to areas for further investigations. If you select a group on the basis of social exclusion and then you see a pattern of social exclusion that’s doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re seeing a pattern in the data, it could mean you selected the data on the basis of a pattern.

For those for whom the Spirit Level data is some revelatory uncovering, I would say this. I think it is interesting work but too much is made of what appears to be a correlation without there being a necessarily definite causal link. It might actually be that some societies have done better for other reasons, and as a result there is more equality of outcome rather than that they do better because of more equality of outcome in the society.

From personally experience, I did find it strange for example that Japan was included in the spirit level as beacon of equality, certainly the highest earnings in Japan don’t tend to be the same multiples as in the US but there is an enormous degree of social segregation and exclusivity to how the society works. To suggest that Japan is a fantastically more equal society than say Ireland is peculiar to my mind. But that’s what happens when you rely on looking at tables of statistics where people see patterns but ignore the fact that their select criteria helped create the pattern in the first place. People say that numbers don’t lie, but they ignore that there is often more than one singular truth and that the numbers might be telling only one truth and not the whole.

And part of the political problem here, and this is a point of difference for people in Labour and one the left and many of us in Fine Gael, is that it sees people primarily being as members of groups rather than as individuals as Marie Moran illustrated quite well at the end of vinb last night,

A core problem with this work is that it ignores the effect that social mobility over the period of time that relatively free education has operated and what it has done to various communities. In the worst of cases like in the UK with the Richard Boyd Barrettalikes over there, someone from a working class background who goes to college and makes a few quid is viewed as a class traitors as if middle class kids were the arbiters of who was and was not working class. I’m from a working class background as are most of my friends but most of us too are really no longer working class because we were able to make the most of the opportunities that were there with the deliberate assistance of our families. There are others who weren’t able to do so but it wasn’t because they were not well off. It was for a myriad of other reasons, none of which Mary and Marie appear to want to recognise because it would undermine their view that we were simply members of a group and not individuals with our own unique stories.

*I wonder after the Labour party manifesto launch if we will see two people from a right of centre background on the show to tag-team up on the Labour representative, will we hell.