How did you think you could get elected to the Seanad?

// April 27th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11, nui seanad 2011

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A few people have asked me how did I think I might get elected*, since if I didn’t remotely think I could get elected then why bother running. In respect of the latter point, I happen to be of the view that contesting elections is not entirely about winning a seat but also about getting particular topics debated, in shaping the tone of that debate and in keeping the debate on track, avoiding being sidetracked into irrelevancies. Did I help in that? I hope so, did I succeed entirely? Probably not.

As for the main thrust of the question, I would have always rated my chances are more about being a possibility that a probability. And you have to to consider is that you can’t decide to run after the field is announced so running or not running isn’t really based in who else is running. In essence, if you’re not in, you can’t win. So you decide to run and only later depending on who else is running might you consider making tweaks to what your original overall plan was.

So how did I think it might be possible to get elected? And what were my targets in electoral terms? I did have other things I want to do during the course of the campaign, about getting some more detailed discussion going on what various people mean by electoral and political reform and some focus in the media on a number of topics. This post is not about that side of things. This post is about the result and the numbers side of things.

My main electoral goals at the outset consisted of breaking the four figures barrier by getting over 1,000 votes before being eliminated, to finish higher up the table than in the last election and depending on the turnout to get more than 3% of the votes before being eliminated.

The main stretch goals were to outpoll both of the other FG contenders (not out of any malice towards them, simply a competitive edge and to underline that I had something of worth to offer the organisation) and if possible to break 5% before being eliminated.

The super stretch was to actually get elected. This in a constituency were I can’t vote myself and where most of the people I know whether they went to third level or not can’t vote and in which I don’t have a natural constituency of voters who would have an easy affinity** with me that is beyond a super stretch goal.

Will I achieve those goals? Well, today will tell all!

As to how I thought I might succeed, what precisely was my perceived path to victory.

At the outset, I considered that the following conditions would need to pertain for me to be in with a shout of getting elected. I would have needed to outpoll the 2 other FG associated candidates, and for there to have been a relatively collapse in the 1st votes for both the incumbents bringing them down to say 7/8% of the first preference vote.

There would also need to occur a number of trends that would work to the advantage of the non-incumbents, a strong dresire for change and that people were transferring strongly amongst the rest of the field rather than voting for their favourites before then transferring in ever greater numbers to the candidates with the greatest name recognition which favours both of the incumbents more than anyone else.

Given the total valid poll were roughly what it was last time around at 36,000, this would leave a quota of 25% at 9,001. If the incumbents were down under 10% that would place them close to 3,000 1st preferences.

So, were I to have gotten over 2,000 or say 5/6% of 1st preferences (depending on the turnout) and both of the other FGer to get 2,500 between them and were I to get no less than 50% of their transfers, it might have left me on just over 3,000 votes. And in a race where the incumbents were starting on a similar figure and with an anti incumbent trend then I just might just stand a chance of being elected. So do I think that will happen? In simple terms, ‘probably not’.

As it stands right now, I don’t believe that the anti-incumbent trend materialised though I do believe there will be a noticeable transfer pattern against Sen. Ronan Mullen that was not in effect the last time out. Whether that means he will be caught by someone from the peleton it is hard to tell at this stage. And the entry of Prof. John Crown has meant that those seeking someone new for its own sake had someone with ready name recognition and a pre-existing media profile to readily rally around. Add to this the extensive media access he was accorded compared to the rest of the combined field and it is hard to see him failing to register amongst the top 5 on the first count and to be ready reserve currency for transfers.  I actually suspect that Prof. John Crown will top the poll, followed by Feargal Quinn and then Ronan Mullen but with the latter only just ahead of a chasing bunch. And I think someone from Peter Mooney, James Doorley, Mick Molloy or Declan Kelleher (the INTO is the most organised of the teaching unions in this election and he will attract solid teacher transfers from O’Sullivan and Healy) to challenge Sen. Mullen to the last seat. I will have a separate post with my more detailed predictions of what I think people will get.

As for myself, I didn’t manage to get much in the way national press exposure, indeed despite having contested the election before I was gazumped for the Vincent Browne panels. My understanding is that they did some focus groups and felt my handsome visage that late at night when many couples were watching the show whilst abed would have lead to matrimonial strive and the breakdown of civil order. That or they thought that only those close to the capital should be on the box.

* actually, the more common phrasing was “what the f&ck were you thinking?”

** I was thinking that I might have a lock on the bearded, burly gent vote prior to the close of nominations but once the ballots went out that demographic became the most contest of all!

2011 – NUI Seanad predictions

// April 27th, 2011 // 1 Comment » // GE11, nui seanad 2011

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I’ve got plenty of massive hostages to fortune and a recipe of egg all over my face in this post but sure nothing ventured, nothing gained. And it’s only intended as an exercise for myself in the main.

I believe the candidates for the NUI panel can be best categorised into about 4 loose groupings of candidates. They are* (a) those who will be over 3,000 1st preferences and will be right there ’til the end and (b) a grouping under 400 votes who didn’t send out leaflets, who didn’t catch fire at all during the campaign, or who for some other reasons didn’t do as well as they expected, (c) a grouping who are just under and over 1,000 votes (individuals who lacked an organised block vote to back them up going into the election but who did manage to find some resonance with the public) and finally (d) those spread between 1,200 and 2,500 who had some block vote backing but not enough to be contenders at the end of the count.

I have added a number after each candidate, it’s not to be taken very seriously as it amounts to little more than guess work, some soothsaying and the reading of entrails on my part. I also would

Starting with (b) those under 400 votes will be

CANNING, Thomas Paul Gabriel, Civil Engineer – 326

COWLEY, Matthias Walter, Teacher – 213

COYLE, James, Smurfit Business School Graduate, Chartered Accountant ,Entrepreneur – 222

KENNEDY, John Paul Alexander, Software Engineer – 380

LANGAN, Mick, Tourism Promoter, Guide and Photographer – 157

Ó CADHLA, Diarmaid Seán, Fear Gnó – -184

O’DONNELL, Francis Martin, Diplomat, Retired UN Representative. – 284

O’DONOGHUE, James, Scientist – 216

Those between 400 and 1,200

O’SHEA FARREN, Linda, Solicitor, Disability Rights Advocate and Member-Nominated Independent Director of EBS -807

LYNAM, Paul – Higher Education Representative – 418

O’CONNOR, Regina Mary, Political and Legal Advisor, European Parliament – 614

O BROLCHÁIN, Niall, Senator – 650

the (c) grouping of those from 1,200 to 3,000, some of whom are proxies for some grouping, union, or political party.

Ó BROIN, Eoin, Policy Analyst – 1,300

PRICE, Brendan Mary, Biologist, Director, Irish Seal Sanctuary – 2,150

DOORLEY, James, Assistant Director, National Youth Council of Ireland – 2,179

KEOGH, Helen, Chief Executive World Vision Ireland, Chairperson of Dóchas – 1,450

CROWN, John, Consultant Doctor 5,000

KELLEHER, Declan, Principal Teacher – 2,300

MULLEN, Rónán, Senator and Lecturer – 3,400

QUINN, Feargal, Senator – 3,800

Likely order of placements at this stage?

1) Crown

2) Quinn

3) Mullen

4) Kelleher

5) Doorley

6) Mooney

7) O’Connell

O’Sullivan

9) Price

10) Healy

11) Keogh

You might have noticed that there is someone missing, moi.

SULLIVAN, Daniel Kevin, Software Professional - I’m undecided if I will manage to break from the lower (b) field into the (c) grouping. My plucked out of thin air number is 671. It could be more it could be less.

Election 2014 – Lucifer sweeps the boards.

// April 27th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

Cover of Lord of the Flies, Educational Edition

Ireland’s political world was reeling last night as the results of the election of 2014 were totted up. Lucifer, Lord of the Underworld has won 43 seats, one in each constituency, in the Dáil elections, standing as an independent.

Voters that spoke to the press about their votes gave the following responses…

“Obviously, I don’t endorse all of his policies, actually, I’m not really familiar with them at all, but I’ll tell you that he has done great things for the area. And he has been round here every week for the last 2 years without fail seeing if there are litle things we wanted doing.  That neighbour’s dog had us up half the night until he took care of it, though I’d not want the neighbours to know that.  So don’t use my name. Or I’ll have the devil after ya! Only joking.”

“He has a lovely pleasant speaking voice, and you can tell he is so well educated, and his manners are just marvellous. They’re from another time! and sure doesn’t he know everyone who was ever anyone! And such style, he has such lovely fabrics!”

“Those people up in Dublin know nothing about problems round here and sure tis well know htat the devil was living over back the way from Connors cross for centuries now, so he’s a local man or whatever it is he is. Well, he’s local anyway”

It is felt his full employment plans while widely derided by his political opponents appear to have found considerable purchase with the public, who believe the devil will indeed find work for idle hands.

His position on abortion and the death penalty have also found much favour. He is also known for his keen interested in the arts with his fiddle playing leading marches up and down towns and villages during the campaign. It is believe he has found support amongst the arts community. He is expected to champion weekend recreation for young people which will prove to be popular as we can be assured he has all the best choons. He is not with controversy as he has dabbled in the past with a minority of business deals that have attracted undue public interest – involving a Mr D. Webster of New England and Prof Faust of Germany.

He has also promised a much more consistent and warmer climate for Ireland. Asserting that he has many manifestations, Lord of the Flies, Beelzebub and can be in two place at once, The Prince of Darkness is expected to take his seats when the Dáil resumes sitting again in two weeks time.

The various other parties in the Oireachtas have been non-committal and evasive about how they will deal or not with Mr Lucifer in the chamber. Sinn Fein were quoted as saying that their dealings in the north had taught them that any supping that one does with the devil should involve very, very long spoons indeed.

Campaign costs

// April 26th, 2011 // 2 Comments » // GE11, nui seanad 2011

Image by styeb via Flickr

So as the campaigns draws to its final close, I’m going to start as I meant to go on with respect to my spending. Whether I get to go on with this is up to the voters and we should have a clearer idea in 48 hours or so. I’m not going to hide stuff that I believe should be in the public domain from all candidates for all elections.

My campaign spending.

Printing my leaflets cost €1,304. The distribution costs were borne by you the taxpayer. My apologies for that, I had suggested in 2007 that a single booklet for all the candidates would be a cheaper and fairer alternative in future but those with the money to spend didn’t appreciate the sentiment. After all, if they had loads of cash to create 4 page A4 booklets why should you the taxpayer foot the delivery bill.

I allotted a portion of my resources towards Ads on Facebook and to date that comes to about €135 getting at last count 1,883,572 impressions. I did experiment more with this and did allow the budget to spiral for a few days before capping it at a more realistic figure.

I allotted a portion of my resources towards Google Ads to date that comes to €14.57 on getting just over 18,000 impressions.

I allotted a portion of my resources to specific Website advertising to date that comes to around €80. I’m not sure of the number of impressions but I have gotten hundreds of people clicking through.

And that’s it. Roughly €1,500 all told. We will only know later in the week if I got value for money.

The Curious Bias of the Vincent Browne Seanad shows

// April 21st, 2011 // 5 Comments » // GE11

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So the election coverage for the Seanad is pretty much done, for another election cycle, and perhaps forever. All that is left now is the whining, the cribbing and the moaning about how we were all done wrong, and how we could have been great if only we’d had a fair shake of the lollipop. Oh and there is some counting of votes to be done too. I’m going to start the ball rolling with this minor crib.

Vincent Browne had a 5/6 week period in which he gave coverage to some of the NUI and TCD Seanad candidates. And a curious thing struck me today when I bothered to take the time look at just who he had featured on his show during that time. The list is below

TCD

Dermot Frost (Dublin based Labour party member)

William Priestly (Dublin born but working on Limerick Regeneration project. Grandson of JB Priestley?*)

Marc Coleman (Dublin based radio presenter)

Maeve Cox (Dublin based, daughter of Valerie Cox?, a reporter with Pat Kenny Radio show*)

NUI

Paddy Healy (Dublin based, former TUI President)

Paul Lynam (Dublin based FFer, UCD SU President)

Regina O’Connor (Brussel based FFer)

Donncha O’Connell (Galway based lecturer, Labour member)

John Crown (Dublin based oncologist)

Eoin O’broin (Dublin based SF candidate)

Helen Keogh (Dublin former PD Oireachtas member, now FG member)

Outside of that period, he had on, on more than one occasion, Linda O’Shea Farren (proving that gauche funding raising for politicians doesn’t harm you in the eyes of Vincent Browne so long as they are the right sort of politician.)

And the other characteristic was none of them were interested in seeing the Seanad abolished no matter what it better overall political set up it might lead to, which left Vincent free to be the one to argue for its abolition.

So the question is begged, is TV3 a Dubliners only station? Only one of the those interviewed was a culchie from culchie land, that being Donncha O’Connell. And he managed to squeeze in 2 FFers compared to 2 Labour, 1 SF and nearly a whole  Fine Gaeler. So much for even the appearance of balance, and Vincent has the gall to complain about Fine Gael not sending people to the show.

* I hear rumours, I don’t always believe them but I hear them.

Close to final comments on NUI Register

// April 21st, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

There is a brief reference in the Irish Times today to comments I made yesterday about the likely turnout for the NUI Seanad and what this says about the  register. My actual comment* was that

“The likely turnout of 30% from 100,000 registered voters, which is itself much less than 30% of the number who should be able to vote were the NUI register up to date, demonstrates once and for all that this is an election for a minority of an elite, by a minority of an irrelevancy. It’s like we are reworking the 60s motto “What if we held an election and no one came.” We must never hold elections in this way again.”

It is worth noting that the turnout from the voters perspective of about 60% of those who probably get a ballot paper in time deciding to vote is not that bad.

I’m really astounded by the earlier part of the article that No.1 votes cast for someone deemed ineligible long after the close of nominations and the printing and issuing of ballots will be deemed to be invalid votes. It is very late in the day for such a decision to be made public when 80% of the votes have been cast. If the race is tight and the number of votes substantial I could easily see a court challenge.

The other aspect is that these elections demonstrate the problems with running non-geographical elections, but that’s a topic that no one will want to consider in practical terms after the election is over. We never appear to want to learn from anything that is happening right in front of us.

*which I entirely accept was too long for the space provided. I would have tried to be more pithy if I was aware it was going to so tight but there again I might not have been.

Fine Gael should allow Sen. Norris to run for President

// April 20th, 2011 // 1 Comment » // GE11

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I had heard some talk a few weeks back that there was a view within Fine Gael that the putative candidacy of Senator Norris was not going to be supported by the party. If this is the case, then it is a very short sighted and even damaging attitude to take.

Now I’m going to be very blunt about this, Fine Gael should seek to ensure he is on the ballot but not for the reasons that many others might advance. I don’t for a moment think that Fine Gael owe Senator Norris the opportunity to run for the Presidency, and given his own opinions that we couldn’t possibly consider an extension of the franchise for the Seanad unless there was complete reform of the Seanad I would not have him as my No.1 choice. Indeed, it is a tad rich to listen to people say that it is somehow Fine Gael’s fault that the consitution makes contesting the election so bloody awkward when we didn’t draft the current constitution and there is nothing to stop Labour, FF and like minded independents from 4 local authorities from nominating him. Or indeed for Labour and a couple of independent Oireachtas members to support him without impinging on Labour’s ability to nominate their own candidate.

However for all that, I think it makes sense for Fine Gael if anyone is thinking about it logically to facilitate his run and that is it would split the left leaning, luvvie vote that otherwise will be hoovered up by whoever is the Labour candidate. So it makes sense for FG to have that political ground occupied by two somewhat similar contestants in an election that may well feature Gerry Adams for SF and a FF stooge. Having Norris in the field actually aids not hinders Fine Gael’s chances of having their candidate elected, and for that reasons alone it is a slam dunk for me that Fine Gael should allow him to run.

Who would I vote for

// April 19th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11, nui seanad 2011

Given that I can’t actually vote in the NUI Seanad panel election this is very much an academic question but I still get asked it. So, below you will find a pictorial indication of who I would consider giving vote for, in no particular order or preferences other than voting No.1 for myself naturally, if I had a vote to cast in this election. As I don’t have a ballot paper myself, I have lifted the image from the ballot someone else received and which they placed on twitpic.

I will post later with reasons why.

Seanad Costs and Expenses

// April 11th, 2011 // 2 Comments » // GE11, nui seanad 2011

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I find the amounts involved in paying people to be members of the Seanad to be out of kilter with the actual work required. And quite frankly, I’m more than content to subsist on the quite generous salary of some 63K per year (and that’s what it is after a number of cuts have been made to it).

I do think it is a bit rich though for some of those contesting the election with external incomes and backgrounds that will allow them to forego the salary entirely to make a grand virtue of this.

Politics is not intended to be the preserve of the rich dilettante or the ideological warrior who cares only for the all encompassing struggle, people who want to raise families and pay their mortgage need to be able to enter and serve in political office too. And let’s face it some of those standing don’t even intend doing the part time aspect of being a Senator by attending voting or most of the debates. Their intention is clearly to squeeze in the occasional vote or debate when it fits in with their schedule instead of working around the fixed schedule of the proceedings themselves. So they will in effect take no salary for doing next to no job at all.

If elected, I would seek to arrange long stay accommodation in Dublin as soon as possible and to designate that as my address for an travel expenses. I will be primarily a user of public transport and with any luck my expenses would be quite modest in this area.

I undertake to publish on this site*, a monthly account of my expenses and what they were incurred for. I believe that only fully vouched and receipted expenses that are directly related to the discharge of ones duties in being a member of the Seanad should be underwritten by the taxpayer. Just as in any normal form of employment where if you are sent from the office while at work then the office will cover the price of a cab or train or whatever you use once you produce a receipt. They’re not going to make a habit of giving you €X for dinner and let you pocket the cash while dining on some sandwiches.

* following the example of other members of Fine Gael.

The not so subtle dissembling of John Waters on the Seanad

// April 8th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11, nui seanad 2011

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Quite a few people have been taken in by today’s Irish Times article John Waters that “Abolishing Seanad would be act of supreme folly”. The real point of this article is to endorse Senator Ronan Mullen, with the article as mere window dressing to fool people into thinking there was a more general point at play here. He took the exact same tact in 2007 mentioning Ronan Mullen 5/6 times in the opening paragraphs of a piece during the election while claiming he wouldn’t be able to give him a mention or even endorse his views before then detailing those views. As a piece of dissembling, it was rather striking. And he’s repeating the exercise again with people gulled into thinking he has some serious point to make other than, if you like John Waters you should vote for Ronan Mullen. And you know what, if you do, then perhaps you should.

In 2007 John Waters said the Seanad was An Affront to democracy, and below is how he opened his piece entitled ‘Seanad is affront to democracy’.

I received a communication last week from Ronan Mullen who, aside from being a fine columnist with another newspaper, is a candidate on the NUI panel in the Seanad elections, writes, John Waters

He was asking for my support. I wept copious tears, partly for being reminded once again, as I am on each occasion of a Seanad election, of my inferior status, and partly from the emotions generated by Ronan’s obvious misapprehension – gathered, I assumed, from the quality of my spelling and punctuation – that I had in fact been to “college”. When Ronan followed up his e-mail with a phone call, it emerged that he was fully aware of my democratic deficit (I did not go to university and therefore am a non-person when it comes to elections to the Seanad), but thought perhaps I might give him a mention in this column.

Regretfully, I had to decline. Though impressed by Ronan’s passion and commitment to promoting the dignity of the human person, his strong views on the importance of family and community, his call for global solidarity and opposition to human trafficking, I explained that I was opposed to oligarchy and could not make an exception. My position, I outlined, is that I am a believer in universal suffrage and looked forward to the introduction of full democracy into Ireland in my lifetime. It would therefore be inconsistent to recommend one elitist candidate over another. Ronan told me he shares my views and believes that both the system of election and the broader operation of the Seanad are in urgent need of reform. For the Seanad to be meaningful as a second house of parliament, he said, it would have to be “more democratically elected and more seriously capable of forcing a second look at legislation”.

He goes on to discuss the O’Rourke report and the failure to implement it though apparently this failure was no fault of anyone’s especially not the government of the day which Mary O’Rourke TD’s party was the main component in. He goes on to lament that “because Seanad elections trample on the most basic principles of democracy, the sheer uselessness of the Seanad might be deemed its sole redeeming quality.” So he reckons that the Seanad elections trample on the most basic principles of democracy but his view now is that we should retain the Seanad not for what it is but for what it might have been, that’s like keeping a rat because it could have been a hamster.

He finishes by saying that “Like many before her, Mary O’Rourke was fired with resolve and good intentions but forgot that nobody takes the slightest notice of anything any member of the Seanad has to say about anything, especially the Seanad.” If that doesn’t sound like someone making the case for the Seanad’s abolition I’m not sure what does.

*needless to say the image is of a much more straight forward and upfront John Waters than the bloke writing for the Irish Times.