Dublin West By Election 2011 Prediction

// October 26th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

With the polling for the Dublin West by election time happening tomorrow there is only a little time for me to whisk up some more egg for my face. The last poll to take place here was for the general election and you can get the full result of that here.

The main parties broke down as follows that time:

LP 29%
FG 27%
SP 19%
FF 16.5%
SF 8%

The full field this time out is below along with my predictions of % vote.

Labour Party Patrick Nulty 24.8%

Socialist Party Ruth Coppinger 21.1%

Fine Gael Eithne Loftus – 17%

Sinn Féin Paul Donnelly 14.82%

Fianna Fáil David McGuinness 12.47%

Green Party Roderic O’Gorman 2.13 %

Independent Brendan Doris – 1.39%

Independent Gary Bermingham – 1.43%

Fís Nua Peadar Ó Ceallaigh 1.2%

Independent Barry Caesar Hunt – 0.97%

Independent Benny Cooney – 0.77%

Independent John Frank Kidd – 0.58%

Independent Jim Tallon – 0.34%

I think the SF transfers break more for the SP than for Labour but while the FG’s transfers should really be expected to trend to Labour and more of less cancel that out, don’t be completely astounded if the the FF votes actually moved the FG candidate into contention herself.

Egg on face 2

// October 23rd, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

So we’re going into the final furlong or the last straight and the race has shifted considerably since the first attempt at this I had made. And how wrong that was, or right in some cases. Never one to back away from the table when there is the chance to double down and get more egg on my face. Here is my current assessment of what the 1st preference vote percentages will be.

Gallagher 31% – this is down considerable on what the polls are saying, my reasoning being that as his support base has grown so much only in the last few weeks that it is soft and open to picking away at by each of the other candidates. Some of whom may attempt to get people to lend them a No.1 before returning it to Gallagher in transfers if only to allow them to claim some expenses. I would hold that his surge to the top is down to two factors other than his own likeability (a) to a strongly anti-politician mindset on the part of the public and (b) because Gallagher is the least urban or urbane of the candidates. Davis, Norris, Mitchell are Dublin based, Higgins for all that he is from and of the West is an academic, McGuinness has no geographical base in the south, nor does Dana in truth though more of her support is in the West than elsewhere. So Gallagher has become go-to guy for the more rural minded folks, he is their George Bush, someone they could see themselves going for a pint or mug of tea with.

Higgins 24.8% – again I have him a little weaker than the polls show him because I think that he has never nailed down the support that was there for him. He has taken no risks and while he is competent and respected, that hasn’t translated in he being seen as inspirational.

McGuinness 13.7% – He will be seen has having underachieved and I believe his candidacy has actually ill served the SF cause in the south as it reminded too many people of the darkest days troubles and how SF and republican movement were in the thick of that awfulness. Made rather excessive claims for kudos for his role in slowing and eventually stopping the destruction of an avalanche of violence than he had himself assisted in setting in motion in the first place. That said had SF run someone of considerably less prominence I suspect their support would have struggled to match the GE result, but what harm.

Mitchell 11.4% – I still reckon a fair few FGers will give their No. 1 to Mitchell once they are in the polling booth. But it will be more out of sorrow than joy. I somehow doubt that the transfers from the 3 lower candidates will be enough for him to overhaul McGuinness. I think that after this election, FG need to seriously reassess the General Election result and realise that the public’s embrace was much more one of desperation and despair than of new found devotion the party and all its works. Trust and support needs to be earned, we’re on probation with the public (as all governments are in truth) and we need to give them more reasons to vote for us, rather than reinforcing the reasons not to vote for X or Y. Because along will come a Z and get the support we had loosened from X and Y.

Norris 10.5% – Some might imagine this a disaster but being in the race and being credible for so long is a triumph in itself. I don’t think he gets enough transfers from the 2 to be eliminated before him to claim his expenses which is a pity.

Davis 4.4% – I guess this is the difference between a well-funded campaign and a well-planned one. Gallagher had a plan to mark himself as the sensible non-establishment candidate (how someone so steeped in the largest party for so long can be able to so easily tag himself as the anti-establishment candidate is truly stunning. )

Scallon 4.2%  - there is still an constituency out there for Dana, even if it is from people who feel sorry for her and themselves. She could yet make a return to Europe if she could see her vote in the West exceed 13%, that will be one of the interesting vignettes to look out for. That could be a platform for her if she could combine with Declan Ganley’s organisation.

Fine Gael’s Presidential misjudgement

// October 6th, 2011 // 1 Comment » // GE11

So it would appear that Gay Mitchell is tanking in the polls, and that his chances of winning the contest are declining faster than the Kerry team in the last 5 minutes of the All-Ireland. Now while I don’t think that his poll showing is really all that reflective of how he will do on the day;  too much of the support for Norris, Gallagher McGuinness and even Mary Davis appears to be  in groupings that traditionally do not turn out on polling day. It has to be acknowledged that there has been a failure associated with the Fine Gael campaign to date.  So even though I still expect that Gay Mitchell will do better on polling day than the current polls show, that isn’t likely to be enough for him to win (or even be even close to 2nd on the first count if Gallagher’s numbers in the older demographics holds up).

I think Gay Mitchell would be a fine president, though I also accept that many people have a pre-determined view of him that they can’t be shaken from not to mind have reversed in such a short space of time. And yet it has to be asked how can someone from the largest political organisation in the state be doing so poorly. And that comes down to the real mistake the party made, it was not in who it choose but how it went about making that choice. There was plenty of time and nothing to prevent a consultation process with the membership up and down the country. Yet nothing happened for months after the general election despite we all being aware that the Presidential election would be happening in the autumn.

After a series of elections in which the party members had gone the extra yard to get the party back into government, many were probably feeling they were due a breather. Yet instead of realising this and seeking to do something different that would engage and energise membership and to allow them have some measure of ownership of the process of selecting the party’s candidate, it was instead decided leave well enough alone and allow the inner circle of the party have the power. The result is that too many people on the ground appear to feel that since the cllrs, the parlimentary party and the national executive were the ones to pick the candidate then they should go do the heavy lifting on their own, after all they picked the candidate on their own. I believe that is a mistaken approach for many members to adopt but I can understand where they are coming from.

There is still time for the party to do a me culpa on the process and get the membership to come out for one last push over the next few weeks but more importantly the party must learn the lesson that the membership can’t be taken for granted and that if we don’t make a real effort to make the party more responsive and more open to the participation of the membership in decision making about what the party stands for and what direction we are to go in that many members will either drift away from involvement or else confine themselves to campaigning only for the individual rep they happen to be friendly with.

The Presidential election and the 2 and half men strategy

// October 4th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

To hell with opinion polls, let’s try picking some actual numbers based on the reading of entrails and the deductive reasoning of a biased pundit. I mean I couldn’t be much worse that this guy.

So here goes, as it stands right now this is how i think the respective candidates are really set to do on election day.

Higgins, Michael 27 %

Mitchell, Gay 18%

Davis,Mary 15%

McGuinness, Martin 14%

Norris,David 12 %

Gallagher, Séan 8%

Scallon, Dana Rosemary 6%

All things being equal candidates could be viewed as starting out with the same level of support. with 7 candidates that is 14.3%. Of course that is rubbish the public aren’t randomly drawing names out of a hat. They have biases and favour interests and dislikes of particular people and their points of view. They have their own life stories and experiences to influence how they make their choices. And the choice they make also influences their transfers. Those who vote for Dana won’t be transferring as heavily to David Norris as they do to other candidates, (that doesn’t mean no one will vote Dana No.1 and Norris No. 2 but many more more will transfer to Mitchell.

So let’s start at the bottom, Dana’s pitched worked well in 1997 but the world is a very different now. Dana has actually made the case against her being President as a bulwark against abortion when she said that no such legislation would be coming before her while she was President as the Attorney General had said so. So why vote for her them? It’s like a noted Shark hunter looking for a job with the coastguard while citing acres of evidence that there is no risk of a shark attack. Go hire someone with expertise in narcotics smuggling instead. I believe her support base will be under half what it was in 1997. So 6%

I think Dana and Gallgher are really confined to fight over an equal share of the vote, Gallagher is saying interesting things and if the campaign wasn’t about a series of denials of one’s involvement in controversies then the press might have found time to let him talk about them. Sadly it isn’t and they won’t. A lack of posters compared to others also tends to make people believe you are not serious and also are a lost cause  (or so people told me once). So he will get more than Dana but not much, hence 8%.

Now it gets interesting, Sen. Norris’ support base is too much in the hands of those who don’t vote and too much of his support is  driven by people who can’t think of a reason to not vote for him nor a reason to vote for anyone else. Once they are provided with a reason to support one of the 6 others they will drift away, or less they simply won’t remember to turn up. Couple that with the various scandals or pseudo scandals and suddenly the cuddly, slight crazy angle doesn’t have the same appeal. Now 12% might not seem like much to some folks but it’s a credible performance from an independent. So I’m saying 12% at the moment, that could trend upwards depending on the campaign or it could collapse entirely if there are more letters in the writing desk.

The notion that SF and more over the republican movement are so shielded from their past that Martin McGuinness can be talked of as a serious contender in a PR-STV one seat election shows how little the various political pundits know about elections.  SF get 10% just about 6 months ago in a national election and certainly McGuinness will increase on that but the idea that he would double in a lower turn out election when much of his base is amongst those less inclined to turn out while those with the most knowledge of his involvement in the north over the past 40 years will be very inclined not to support him. The only way he increases from this level is to tap into some of those on the harder left who are inclined to support Michael D. Higgins in despite of his Labour involvement rather than because of it. And that may well be what FG are about with their targeting of McGuinness. Boost him at Higgins expense.

Davis, the candidate who wasn’t and isn’t there. She comes across as terribly nice which is great in a way but this is the Presidency and for all that it is seen by most people as the state’s official greeter and our overseas tourist No.1, most people are aware on a certain level that the job also involves serious political judgement and knowledge of the constitution and the political realities of the country. The amazing thing about the previous Marys is not that they did all the touchy feely, dancing at the moonlight crossroad bridge but that they did that while wearing their education and knowledge of the less press friendly demands of the post so lightly. That they did the front of house tasks well was a bonus but that they could do the dull spade work had to be a given. It’s not with Davis and that is why she’s not going to challenge for the position when the race gets tighter.

So how in God’s name do I have Gay Mitchell in 2nd place? Because while he might on 14/15% amongst the population at large his appeal will work much more so to the demographics that will turn up on polling day. And he has (for all that most elements of the blogorati will despise him for doing so) seen off the sound spoken challenge of Dana for the more conservative element of the population and even those that vote for her will come, in part, back to him and he has going after a forgotten vote, middle aged men who think that the President should be more assertive on behalf of Ireland and not just the greeter No.1. I call it the two and half men strategy for rather obvious reasons, go after a large support base that others, in particular the media, turn their noses up at and you’re laughing.

Higgins is well out in front at this point and is best placed to gain more transfers from each of the other candidates than anyone else. I think he will get 20% minimum but that 27% could be picked away at if an improbable but not impossible combinations of factors were to kick in. Dana undermines him slightly in the West, Norris in the urban vote, McGuinness in working class areas and on the more ideologically inclined left, Davis in the “shure he’s terrible nice” stakes. Were that to happen the race could fall into Mitchell’s lap. But that’s not likely and unlikely things never happen in Irish Presidential elections right?