Some last minute predictions

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It is just possible that FG might get 3 seats in Cork South West and Limerick County (if Collins FF is under 19% this is very doable), and we could see 3 FGers in Laois Offaly.

My prediction from two nights before polling still stands of, for what it is worth,

FG38%/FF20%/Lab17%/SF10%/Grn1.8%/ULA3.2%/Ind10%

I suspect transfers from FG to Labour will be down somewhat on the usual level, I’ve met loads of Fine Gael voters who are seriously ticked off over the Labour tactics in the last 2 weeks. Fine Gael the party of the Just Society, which actually made the case to middle Ireland for the introduction of divorce on two occasions, that changed the public mindset about divorce and which frankly ensured that Irelanfd in the 80s with twice the unemployment rate of the UK had nothing like the social problems or unrest like Toxteth or Brixton is being painted as an entirely neo-Thatcherite party by. Sure there are right wingers in FG just there are pseudo or near unreconstructed communists in Labour but to characterise FG as being solely that sort of party is inaccurate and frankly gets up the backs of older FGers. My parents who would normally vote Labour immediately after FG almost by instinct were very…well, hurt is the only word I can think of… by the behaviour of Labour and its leadership over the last while and had my dad’s vote not already been in the post he would most probably have changed it. As it was I left my mother mulling over voting for an left leaning independent instead of the Labour candidate. Will this cost Labour some gains?

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