I’ve got plenty of massive hostages to fortune and a recipe of egg all over my face in this post but sure nothing ventured, nothing gained. And it’s only intended as an exercise for myself in the main.
I believe the candidates for the NUI panel can be best categorised into about 4 loose groupings of candidates. They are* (a) those who will be over 3,000 1st preferences and will be right there ’til the end and (b) a grouping under 400 votes who didn’t send out leaflets, who didn’t catch fire at all during the campaign, or who for some other reasons didn’t do as well as they expected, (c) a grouping who are just under and over 1,000 votes (individuals who lacked an organised block vote to back them up going into the election but who did manage to find some resonance with the public) and finally (d) those spread between 1,200 and 2,500 who had some block vote backing but not enough to be contenders at the end of the count.
I have added a number after each candidate, it’s not to be taken very seriously as it amounts to little more than guess work, some soothsaying and the reading of entrails on my part. I also would
Starting with (b) those under 400 votes will be
CANNING, Thomas Paul Gabriel, Civil Engineer – 326
COWLEY, Matthias Walter, Teacher – 213
COYLE, James, Smurfit Business School Graduate, Chartered Accountant ,Entrepreneur – 222
KENNEDY, John Paul Alexander, Software Engineer – 380
LANGAN, Mick, Tourism Promoter, Guide and Photographer – 157
Ó CADHLA, Diarmaid Seán, Fear Gnó – -184
O’DONNELL, Francis Martin, Diplomat, Retired UN Representative. – 284
O’DONOGHUE, James, Scientist – 216
Those between 400 and 1,200
O’SHEA FARREN, Linda, Solicitor, Disability Rights Advocate and Member-Nominated Independent Director of EBS -807
LYNAM, Paul – Higher Education Representative – 418
MCCURTIN, David Thomas , Primary School Teacher – 700
O’CONNOR, Regina Mary, Political and Legal Advisor, European Parliament – 614
O BROLCHÁIN, Niall, Senator – 650
the (c) grouping of those from 1,200 to 3,000, some of whom are proxies for some grouping, union, or political party.
Ó BROIN, Eoin, Policy Analyst – 1,300
PRICE, Brendan Mary, Biologist, Director, Irish Seal Sanctuary – 2,150
DOORLEY, James, Assistant Director, National Youth Council of Ireland – 2,179
KEOGH, Helen, Chief Executive World Vision Ireland, Chairperson of Dóchas – 1,450
HEALY, Paddy, Former President, Teachers Union of Ireland 1,400
And finally the (a) grouping those over 3,000 who will be there at the end. They could be joined by one or two from the previous list.
CROWN, John, Consultant Doctor 5,000
KELLEHER, Declan, Principal Teacher – 2,300
MULLEN, Rónán, Senator and Lecturer – 3,400
QUINN, Feargal, Senator – 3,800
Likely order of placements at this stage?
You might have noticed that there is someone missing, moi.
SULLIVAN, Daniel Kevin, Software Professional - I’m undecided if I will manage to break from the lower (b) field into the (c) grouping. My plucked out of thin air number is 671. It could be more it could be less.