In 2011 there was a large field of candidates for the NUI Seanad panel, with a considerable spread of support across the entire field. 3 candidates who got just 46% of the votes got 100% of the seats. 54% of votes went to candidates who were simply never in with a shout of getting a seat or of altering the outcome.
The upcoming general election is also likely to be quite similar with the large % of people voting for Independents or new smaller parties and others but with those votes not altering the outcome of who gets the seats. Naturally where there are existing independents or new party incumbents they could see their support rise and if there is a singular new party or independent representative who is well ahead of the pack on the first count then they might stand a slight chance but if they’re more than a few percentage points outside the band of the number of the seats then it is very unlikely that the large non-main party vote will coalesce on this leader. This doesn’t mean their votes are wasted but rather that the high opinion poll rating will not result in the level of seats that many are predicting or expecting.