The Tories baseless fear of PR

// May 5th, 2010 // No Comments » // ukge2010

Jason notes the fear factor being raised by the Daily Mail against PR. One does have to wonder if the poor dears writing for the Daily Mail in the UK know how PR works. Someone should get Richard Waghorne to help them out with it.

Fact is that the Tories would start life under a new PR system with a much better set up than anyone else. True all 3 of the major UK parties would fracture to some degree in the 1st election under what the form of PR-STV they might adopt, there are the Tories who would vote UKIP as 1st preference but they would come back to the Tories in later counts, the same for the LibDems as the more sandal orientated went for a walk in the meadows with the Greens. But it is the Labour movement which would split the most, producing a jamboree of leftish and far leftish parties that would emerge with so much antipathy between them that transfers would not be forthcoming. The 80s militant era would be a cake walk in comparison. It’s no coincidence that the right has tended to get people elected President in France despite the supposed left leaning nature of their voters.

So come on for the big win Conservatives and support PR. You’ve nothing to lose.

The dangers of implicit coalitions

// April 30th, 2010 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

In all the talk about minority administrations and hung parliaments in the UK general election it would appear people are missing or glossing over the reality that all political parties are coalitions of sorts. In a tight voting set up, those smaller elements within parties can suddenly find themselves elevated to a position of influence they never had before. Such a position can lead to the indulgence of the temptation to overreach their influence and have the result of collapsing the government.

In 1992 John Major won the UK general election and was returned with a majority of 20 odd. It ended up being one of the more fractious governments in modern times with the PM held to ransom by his ‘bastards’ in cabinet and dogged at ever turn by a rump opposed to further integration with the EU. He even ended up being stifled in his ability to make progress on northern Ireland because of his dependency on unionist votes.

Does anyone think that David Cameron and his Conservative party would be immune from those some pressures, perhaps not on the EU but on some other issues? People for whom topic X is more important that the government or the management of the economy. The upside of explicit coalitions as we’ve seen in Ireland is that it suppresses the internal fracture lines within parties by diverting all media attention to the gap between the parties themselves.

So a small majority government would be even more precarious poised for collapse than a coalition with an explicit agreed program for government. Who knows what prices behind the doors that a rump of homophobic or xenophobic MPs might exact from David Cameron as PM?

William Hague as PM

// April 28th, 2010 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

Based on the noises from Clegg over last weekend, it sounds like he might not wish his party to serve with either Cameron or Brown as PM. So borrowing from the northern Ireland model where party leaders don’t necessarily go for the top gig, could we see Cable as Chancellor with Hague as PM?

Why would Clegg want Hague as PM? Clegg might prefer Hague because he would be electorally less popular than Cameron. Having him as PM would reduce the inclination of the Tories to cut and run too quickly from a Con-Lib agreement before the various pieces of electoral reform and items precious to the Lib-Dems have been legislated for. Cameron, under these circumstances, might well stay as party leader under what might be a time defined administration for say 2/3 years. Having Hague as PM minimises the chances of the Tories cutting and running for an overall majority before the key elements of the Lib-Dem program are passed. This merely adds to the reasons for his neither ‘Cameron nor Brown’ remarks to Marr last Sunday.