Government to introduce new Voter Gender Quotas

// July 6th, 2011 // 1 Comment » // 2011

As a follow up to the various amendments to the  Electoral Act over thre past 5 years the Irish government is proposing to introduce new Voter Gender Quotas to restrict the % of women that can vote at election time.

With females being confirmed once more as the majority of the population in the preliminary figures of the 2016 Irish Census and with the continuing failure of women to both contest elections even as independents or to vote for their fellow women before taking into account any other considerations, like party affliations, policy platforms, experience and personal competence the time has come for drastic action the minister says.

The government has decided that the % of voters of either gender allowed to vote on polling day will be reflective of the average of the percentage make-up of the previous Dail, local councils and European Elections. With women representatives still just under 25% even after the application of the 40% quota on candidates at the least election, this means that women will not be allowed to make up more than 25% of the electorate.

Lobbying group, WeTheRightSortOfPeople, has welcomed the initative saying that it’s about time that women were reminded that it is the failure of women to contest elections and to vote the right way that has lead to this situation. Let’s face the truth, it’s pretty evident that the women haven’t been voting for the female candidates all along and it’s high time that we respected their influence as a result.

“If women stopped thinking of themselves as free citizens with the right to choose to do or not do things as they please and instead thought of them as women above all else we would all be better off” said a WTRSOP spokesentity  said. “After all what matters most is not whether or not our state is really treating all of our citizens as free and equal people but that we give the impression that we are”

At the next election every woman that seeks to vote will have to wait until 3 men have voted in order to ensure that the percentage of men to women voters does not exceed the target ratio of 75% to 25%. The legislation requires that if an increased percentage of women are elected at this election that the % of women who can vote will similarly be increased.

When it was pointed out that reducing the number of women voters made no logical sense at all and indeed if it was the expectation that men would vote for women more so than women would then why was it men’s fault that women were not contesting elections in the first place, the response was to denounce those who cling to outdated notions about logic and cause and effect declaiming that “This is a wonderfully brave new world that has such lovely fragrant creatures in it.”

Announcement of candidacy for NUI Seanad

// March 6th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11, nui seanad 2011, nuim, Seanad, seanad eireann, seanad reform

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I am running once more for Seanad Éireann on the NUI panel, this post will tell you a bit about me and why I’m running*.

I’m an unmarried** 43 year old engineer. I’m a practical person who believes that politics matters most when it is about how we choose to do things, not simply who does them. I’m the son of parents from Kerry who were forced into emigration to England in the 50s and who had to do similar myself in the 90s, going to Japan. I later had the opportunity to choose to work in the US.

My intention is to make  politics work; for all of us, not simply for some of us. Like 95% of the electorate, I cannot vote in this Seanad election. We need your vote. Who would have thought that 4 years on from the 2007 election, where I attempted and, to be frank about it, failed to get some currency for the topic of electoral and political reform that it would now be so much centre stage. Real Political Reform is not an end in itself rather it is a means to an end, to create a society governed more wisely, more compassionately and more competently.

(more…)

The technicalities of technical groups

// February 27th, 2011 // 1 Comment » // GE11

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It would seem to me that the ULA, SF and FF will be able to form technical groups meaning 3 responding to the government, and perhaps a group made up of former FFers (Healy-Rea,Fleming, Mattie Mcgrath, Joe Behan (if he squeezes back in), Grealish, ) and others. And maybe the right and populist independents might sort out something.

All of which will have the effect of watering down FF’s reactions. Also, I’m not sure of the protocol but just who is the official leader of the opposition is it the leader of the largest party or the person who gets the next highest vote for Taoiseach? Cos that could be Gerry Adams.

A minor but significant polling point to consider.

// February 26th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

So with the RTE exit poll published of FG 36.1 Lab 20.5%, FF 15.1, SF, 10.1%, Greens 2.7% Others 15.5.

There is a minor change in the party order that could be significant in terms of seats never before has the greatest party been so far ahead but also as transfer receptive to one of the other two big vote getters. FF traditionally got 40% or thereabouts but FG were there between them and Labour to soak up transfers. This time FF are behind Labour but unlikely to transfer in sufficient numbers for Labour candidates to catch FG candidates while Labour are also transferring to FG where the contest is being FG and FF. So don’t be surprised if the 36% instead of giving the mid to low 70s that some are predicting starts to creep back up closer to 80 seats by tomorrow morning.

Some last minute predictions

// February 26th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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It is just possible that FG might get 3 seats in Cork South West and Limerick County (if Collins FF is under 19% this is very doable), and we could see 3 FGers in Laois Offaly.

My prediction from two nights before polling still stands of, for what it is worth,

FG38%/FF20%/Lab17%/SF10%/Grn1.8%/ULA3.2%/Ind10%

I suspect transfers from FG to Labour will be down somewhat on the usual level, I’ve met loads of Fine Gael voters who are seriously ticked off over the Labour tactics in the last 2 weeks. Fine Gael the party of the Just Society, which actually made the case to middle Ireland for the introduction of divorce on two occasions, that changed the public mindset about divorce and which frankly ensured that Irelanfd in the 80s with twice the unemployment rate of the UK had nothing like the social problems or unrest like Toxteth or Brixton is being painted as an entirely neo-Thatcherite party by. Sure there are right wingers in FG just there are pseudo or near unreconstructed communists in Labour but to characterise FG as being solely that sort of party is inaccurate and frankly gets up the backs of older FGers. My parents who would normally vote Labour immediately after FG almost by instinct were very…well, hurt is the only word I can think of… by the behaviour of Labour and its leadership over the last while and had my dad’s vote not already been in the post he would most probably have changed it. As it was I left my mother mulling over voting for an left leaning independent instead of the Labour candidate. Will this cost Labour some gains?

The swamping of the Fine Gael Facebook page

// February 23rd, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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It is amazing that those posting messages about Fine Gael suppposedly censoring comments on their Facebook page don’t bother to look back over the last few days where they will see any number of comments from people posting about Fine Gael supposedly censoring their comments which are clearly visible.  It is hard to tell where or even when precisely this story originated but it’s easy to understand why people are inclined to take the claims at face value despite no actual evidence being presented to show that censor of views is taking place. Like someone in a shopping centre screaming about a missing child we’re focused on finding the child despite none of us having ever seem the child in question before. So anyone who makes inquiries about the details is viewed as delaying the more urgent work of alerting everyone to the missing child, just as anyone asking about the detail in this case is viewed as supporting censorship.

So what is the current situation? There are loads of visible comments that are critical or negative about Fine Gael’s position on same-sex marraige and other topics that have been on the site for a few days now, so why would they be removing some comments, if indeed they were, and not others? From some of the supposedly removed comments that people have screen grabbed and linked back that I’ve looked at their content is for the most part abuse rather than any substantive point. Or they are cut and paste duplicates of the same question that has been asked and already answered, perhaps not to the satisfaction of those asking it but if those asking it are in disagreement with Fine Gael’s policy then they are never going to get an answer that is satisfactory.

What may be taking place is the filtering of how people choose to express themselves and not the substance of the views they are expressing, it might surprise some comments but on-line just as offline if you want to be taken seriously than swearing and vulgar abuse isn’t of much assistance in that regard.

If Fine Gael were censoring comments on the basis of the views being expressed then I would condemn that and say it was bang out of order, but if comments are being removed simply because they use considerably less than parliamentary language on what is a public page for a legitimate political party then that’s quite reasonable. I’ve yet to see evidence of reasonable comments that aren’t cut and paste duplicates being removed, and let’s face it most of those commenting haven’t seen that evidence either but they’re inclined to believe it is happening for reasons unrelated to what might or might not be happening with the page. It is possible for example that FG is using pre-moderation which means that posts don’t appear immediately but are queued for review and later posting once reviewed, the Irish Times and lots of sites do that. That does not mean views are being censored at all just that they don’t appear immediately. But I can’t be any more sure than the rest of those posting are about what precisely is happening, yet they are certain and are reacting to what they believe is certain.

Those supporting these tactics are in effect giving a green light to Cóir and the likes to engage in the same sort of reprehenisble swamping of discussion so as to paint Labour for example in a particularly negative and unrepresenative light. I could think to myself that this is a brilliantly conceived and executed attack by Labour Youth or an affliate but given how Labour’s campaign has gone to date that would be stretching crediblity.

I personally favour moving to full equality for same-sex marriage within the time frame of the next Dail, but I’d suggesting giving the civil partnership legislation some time to bed down first to ensure there are no legal channels or problems arisig from it. I think it is better to do this right than to rush it. But this swamping of the Fine Gael facebook page isn’t about the issue at all, it’s about people who aren’t inclined towards Fine Gael seeking to paint the party in a poor light in the last days of an election campaign.

Do FG really need 40 pts for a majority?

// February 14th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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Every year in  the premiership a number of smaller teams set themselves the not inconsiderable task* of avoiding relegation with the hard number of 40pts as the target to be achieved. Some rare seasons you might need more than this, more often than not less will suffice but the hard target of 40pts has come to be engrained as the point of safety in the minds of players, managers and supporters like.

In Ireland the widely held belief is that you need a minimum of 40% of the 1st preference before you can even start beginning to think about an overall majority. But this is not a hard number, the number needed to get an overall majority has actually dropped considerably over the last few decades. There was a time when FF with 47/48% couldn’t get a majority due to the voting behaviour of the people and the toxicity of Charlie Haughey and the FF tribe to others. This changed over time as Bertie made the party much less transfer repellent, combined with more careful candidate selection. Yet this change could be about to work in the opposition direction also.

This election will be unusual for any number of reasons including most significantly of all, but to date unreported on, the likely elimination of front runner FF candidates who might in one scenario lock in more 1st preference votes than ever before thus lowering the number of votes need to win the last and 2nd last seat in many constituencies. This in turn could mean FG winning 80 seats from less than 40% of the 1st preference vote. Alternatively if some the outgoing FF TDs who didn’t lock in loads of 1st preferences were to trend more towards FG than we might have expected given the parties enmity down the years then this too might lower the final effective quota needed to win the last 2 seats. Why might those voting for FF transfer to FG, well, if the thesis were true that FF and FG draw a lot of support from the more conservative elements in Irish society then who do you think they would transfer to (if they transfer at all) in a choice between FG, Labour or SF?

Locked in votes would reduce what I term the final effective quota. The final effective quota differs from the quota in that if you exceed the quota then you are automatically elected but if you end up ahead of the last uneliminated candidate then you are deemed elected without exceeding the quota. Take Limerick in 2007 for example, the quota was 8230 but the last candidate was elected on 6966 making what appears the final effective quota just under 7,000 considerably lower the actual quota. In truth the final effect quota is not what the final candidate got but what they needed to get which is more than 5776, even less than the actual quota. All the last candidate needed to get was 5777 almost 2,500  vote less than the quota.

If there are more votes lost to non-transfers than usual then this effective final quota will be lower and thus seats could be won without getting remotely close to the quota. So in this election, we could see many more candidates than we might have expected getting elected without exceeding the quota.

* as a Palace fan avoiding relegation is practically my battle for a champions league place. We went down one year after finishing 4th from bottom because the Premier League was doing sizing from 22 to 20 teams. We also made it to the final 4 of the League and FA cups. So I’m not being sarcastic when I say that task is not inconsiderable.

A question of balance

// February 11th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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Last night we had another one of those eye of the beholder Vincent Browne moments. To set the scene, there was a review of the Fine Gael Manifesto with the panel consisting of two folks from a Labour/Left background, at least Mary Murphy had the decency to be up front about being a Labour party member,and one a centrist sceptic along with Leo Varadkar. And they were joined for a review of the papers by the sub from the UCD equality studies department, Marie Moran, who is there when Kathleen Lynch isn’t available*.

The moment came from the inability of Mary Murphy and Marie Moran to understand that the primary cause of ill-health in those in the more vulnerable social classes might not necessarily that they’re in living on a low income. Leo Varadkar wasn’t arguing that it wasn’t a factor at all in their situation but that in many cases the opposite is true that people are in poverty because they have a chronic illness that limits their ability to work or earn with sufficient regularity to move out of this vulnerability. Vincent then took his bias out for a run, in that laugh it off manner of his, by stating that Leo suffered from the disability of having studied medicine which he had compounded by his membership of Fine Gael**.

The problem for Mary and Marie, and others who thought this was great gas and that Leo was having his ass handed to him on the plage, is that they are looking at a table of data and feeling that it has given them some conclusive insight in people’s life; when all it has done, much like wikipedia, is offer pointers to areas for further investigations. If you select a group on the basis of social exclusion and then you see a pattern of social exclusion that’s doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re seeing a pattern in the data, it could mean you selected the data on the basis of a pattern.

For those for whom the Spirit Level data is some revelatory uncovering, I would say this. I think it is interesting work but too much is made of what appears to be a correlation without there being a necessarily definite causal link. It might actually be that some societies have done better for other reasons, and as a result there is more equality of outcome rather than that they do better because of more equality of outcome in the society.

From personally experience, I did find it strange for example that Japan was included in the spirit level as beacon of equality, certainly the highest earnings in Japan don’t tend to be the same multiples as in the US but there is an enormous degree of social segregation and exclusivity to how the society works. To suggest that Japan is a fantastically more equal society than say Ireland is peculiar to my mind. But that’s what happens when you rely on looking at tables of statistics where people see patterns but ignore the fact that their select criteria helped create the pattern in the first place. People say that numbers don’t lie, but they ignore that there is often more than one singular truth and that the numbers might be telling only one truth and not the whole.

And part of the political problem here, and this is a point of difference for people in Labour and one the left and many of us in Fine Gael, is that it sees people primarily being as members of groups rather than as individuals as Marie Moran illustrated quite well at the end of vinb last night,

A core problem with this work is that it ignores the effect that social mobility over the period of time that relatively free education has operated and what it has done to various communities. In the worst of cases like in the UK with the Richard Boyd Barrettalikes over there, someone from a working class background who goes to college and makes a few quid is viewed as a class traitors as if middle class kids were the arbiters of who was and was not working class. I’m from a working class background as are most of my friends but most of us too are really no longer working class because we were able to make the most of the opportunities that were there with the deliberate assistance of our families. There are others who weren’t able to do so but it wasn’t because they were not well off. It was for a myriad of other reasons, none of which Mary and Marie appear to want to recognise because it would undermine their view that we were simply members of a group and not individuals with our own unique stories.

*I wonder after the Labour party manifesto launch if we will see two people from a right of centre background on the show to tag-team up on the Labour representative, will we hell.

A gender kink in political reform proposals

// February 9th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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There is a recurring desire expressed to see more sittings of the Oireachtas moving to 4 days or even 5 days in part as a means to facilitate more family hours so that there would be less late sittings.

However, this creates another problem, as these same family friendly hours actually only suit those whose families are close enough for them to see them in the evening, i.e. Dublin based TDs or those within commuting distance as other TDs from further afield are actually away from their families during the week. So either the TDs from outside of Dublin move their children, dogs, cats, spouses to Dublin and have them attend school, chase cats and work there or they leave them at home and they only see them at weekends.

But that’s not family friendly at all and it will be to their electoral disadvantage as moving the family and those the family home to Dublin will leave those TDs open to a challenge from a more locally based candidate and the cycle would begin again. So a solution to a problem that we are told has a great impact on getting women, especially those with young child involved in politics it would seem that the likely effect of moving to more shorter sitting days would be to deny female TDs the longevity needed to become ministers, party leaders or ultimately Taoiseach because they either have to leave their children for longer periods of time or leave themselves more vulnerable to electoral defeat.

Of course, a solution to this might be to question why we need the Dail chamber aspect of being a parliamentarian requires you to be in Dublin at all. Might we start to reconsider the assembly nature of Dail process entirely? After all, it’s not like anyone is in the chamber genuinely listening to what others have to say so why do they need to be so close proximity at all? Would it be more properly family friendly to have a virtual chamber?

The lunacy of an agreed FG/Lab program for government

// February 2nd, 2011 // 2 Comments » // 2011, GE11

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It has come up repeatedly in press commentary over the last few weeks and was a feature  again last night on Vincent Browne that FG and Labour should published an agreed program for government before the election takes place. We know that Vincent isn’t the greatest with numbers so I’ll be really slow with this.

If FG get 60 seats and Labour 30 then that’s a 2:1 ratio or if FG and Labour both got 50 seats then that’s a 1:1 ratio or a 50/50 split.

The ratio of the parties would affect and reflect more than the simple make up of the cabinet. It would reflect the level of public support that each party’s manifesto had gotten and thus the legitimate negotiating strength for each position. That is why for the parties to negotiate now in advance of the people giving their verdict on the proposals of each party would be sure lunacy, as it presupposes or rather completely ignores what the opinion of the public would be. The election isn’t just about who is Taoiseach or how many bums each party gets to seat around the cabinet table, but it is about whose ideas the public favour more.