A minor but significant polling point to consider.

// February 26th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

So with the RTE exit poll published of FG 36.1 Lab 20.5%, FF 15.1, SF, 10.1%, Greens 2.7% Others 15.5.

There is a minor change in the party order that could be significant in terms of seats never before has the greatest party been so far ahead but also as transfer receptive to one of the other two big vote getters. FF traditionally got 40% or thereabouts but FG were there between them and Labour to soak up transfers. This time FF are behind Labour but unlikely to transfer in sufficient numbers for Labour candidates to catch FG candidates while Labour are also transferring to FG where the contest is being FG and FF. So don’t be surprised if the 36% instead of giving the mid to low 70s that some are predicting starts to creep back up closer to 80 seats by tomorrow morning.

Some last minute predictions

// February 26th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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It is just possible that FG might get 3 seats in Cork South West and Limerick County (if Collins FF is under 19% this is very doable), and we could see 3 FGers in Laois Offaly.

My prediction from two nights before polling still stands of, for what it is worth,

FG38%/FF20%/Lab17%/SF10%/Grn1.8%/ULA3.2%/Ind10%

I suspect transfers from FG to Labour will be down somewhat on the usual level, I’ve met loads of Fine Gael voters who are seriously ticked off over the Labour tactics in the last 2 weeks. Fine Gael the party of the Just Society, which actually made the case to middle Ireland for the introduction of divorce on two occasions, that changed the public mindset about divorce and which frankly ensured that Irelanfd in the 80s with twice the unemployment rate of the UK had nothing like the social problems or unrest like Toxteth or Brixton is being painted as an entirely neo-Thatcherite party by. Sure there are right wingers in FG just there are pseudo or near unreconstructed communists in Labour but to characterise FG as being solely that sort of party is inaccurate and frankly gets up the backs of older FGers. My parents who would normally vote Labour immediately after FG almost by instinct were very…well, hurt is the only word I can think of… by the behaviour of Labour and its leadership over the last while and had my dad’s vote not already been in the post he would most probably have changed it. As it was I left my mother mulling over voting for an left leaning independent instead of the Labour candidate. Will this cost Labour some gains?

Do FG really need 40 pts for a majority?

// February 14th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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Every year in  the premiership a number of smaller teams set themselves the not inconsiderable task* of avoiding relegation with the hard number of 40pts as the target to be achieved. Some rare seasons you might need more than this, more often than not less will suffice but the hard target of 40pts has come to be engrained as the point of safety in the minds of players, managers and supporters like.

In Ireland the widely held belief is that you need a minimum of 40% of the 1st preference before you can even start beginning to think about an overall majority. But this is not a hard number, the number needed to get an overall majority has actually dropped considerably over the last few decades. There was a time when FF with 47/48% couldn’t get a majority due to the voting behaviour of the people and the toxicity of Charlie Haughey and the FF tribe to others. This changed over time as Bertie made the party much less transfer repellent, combined with more careful candidate selection. Yet this change could be about to work in the opposition direction also.

This election will be unusual for any number of reasons including most significantly of all, but to date unreported on, the likely elimination of front runner FF candidates who might in one scenario lock in more 1st preference votes than ever before thus lowering the number of votes need to win the last and 2nd last seat in many constituencies. This in turn could mean FG winning 80 seats from less than 40% of the 1st preference vote. Alternatively if some the outgoing FF TDs who didn’t lock in loads of 1st preferences were to trend more towards FG than we might have expected given the parties enmity down the years then this too might lower the final effective quota needed to win the last 2 seats. Why might those voting for FF transfer to FG, well, if the thesis were true that FF and FG draw a lot of support from the more conservative elements in Irish society then who do you think they would transfer to (if they transfer at all) in a choice between FG, Labour or SF?

Locked in votes would reduce what I term the final effective quota. The final effective quota differs from the quota in that if you exceed the quota then you are automatically elected but if you end up ahead of the last uneliminated candidate then you are deemed elected without exceeding the quota. Take Limerick in 2007 for example, the quota was 8230 but the last candidate was elected on 6966 making what appears the final effective quota just under 7,000 considerably lower the actual quota. In truth the final effect quota is not what the final candidate got but what they needed to get which is more than 5776, even less than the actual quota. All the last candidate needed to get was 5777 almost 2,500  vote less than the quota.

If there are more votes lost to non-transfers than usual then this effective final quota will be lower and thus seats could be won without getting remotely close to the quota. So in this election, we could see many more candidates than we might have expected getting elected without exceeding the quota.

* as a Palace fan avoiding relegation is practically my battle for a champions league place. We went down one year after finishing 4th from bottom because the Premier League was doing sizing from 22 to 20 teams. We also made it to the final 4 of the League and FA cups. So I’m not being sarcastic when I say that task is not inconsiderable.

Those annoying Voices

// February 11th, 2011 // 2 Comments » // GE11

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A goodly number of people complain about those who would complain about voices that sound whiny, the charge from the former is that this complaint from the latter is primarily sexist in nature. Certainly women’s voices are pitched within a somewhat higher range than that of men but most men and women do not find a woman’s voice annoying.

The truth is that adults in general find a voice pitched higher than the normal range annoying not because it sounds like a woman’s voice but because it sounds like a small child’s voice. And while we’re programmed not to find our own offspring’s voices sufficiently annoying to entertain for too long thoughts of leaving them at the closest convent door with a note saying how you couldn’t cope and that child is the true prince of Monte Cristo, it’s not the same for the children of others. So when we hear the approaching high pitched whine of a 5 year old flying his car around a restaurant we bristle.

And when we hear someone on the telly, in particular a public figure, who is flying their policy idea around the studio we feel much the same. And that goes doubly for someone who sounds like they’re losing control of the flight of this policy and that’s all going to crash and burn before our eyes. So no complaining that you find Martin Mansergh’s voice annoying is not remotely sexist.

A gender kink in political reform proposals

// February 9th, 2011 // No Comments » // GE11

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There is a recurring desire expressed to see more sittings of the Oireachtas moving to 4 days or even 5 days in part as a means to facilitate more family hours so that there would be less late sittings.

However, this creates another problem, as these same family friendly hours actually only suit those whose families are close enough for them to see them in the evening, i.e. Dublin based TDs or those within commuting distance as other TDs from further afield are actually away from their families during the week. So either the TDs from outside of Dublin move their children, dogs, cats, spouses to Dublin and have them attend school, chase cats and work there or they leave them at home and they only see them at weekends.

But that’s not family friendly at all and it will be to their electoral disadvantage as moving the family and those the family home to Dublin will leave those TDs open to a challenge from a more locally based candidate and the cycle would begin again. So a solution to a problem that we are told has a great impact on getting women, especially those with young child involved in politics it would seem that the likely effect of moving to more shorter sitting days would be to deny female TDs the longevity needed to become ministers, party leaders or ultimately Taoiseach because they either have to leave their children for longer periods of time or leave themselves more vulnerable to electoral defeat.

Of course, a solution to this might be to question why we need the Dail chamber aspect of being a parliamentarian requires you to be in Dublin at all. Might we start to reconsider the assembly nature of Dail process entirely? After all, it’s not like anyone is in the chamber genuinely listening to what others have to say so why do they need to be so close proximity at all? Would it be more properly family friendly to have a virtual chamber?

Did FF think their political reform proposals through at all?

// February 7th, 2011 // 2 Comments » // GE11

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Having a substitute in the Dail as suggested in the political reform segment of the FF manifesto would hardly free up a minister’s time at all, it’s not like voting in the Dail is causing them that many headaches for them as it is. They are already allocated up to half a dozen civil servants to handle their constituency work at the taxpayers expense. This is done without letting on to the constituent who is lead to believe it’s the minister who is writing and signing all those letters until that letter turns out to be for a murder or child molester in which case we’re then told it was their staff wrote it.

And what happens when the minister seeks to run for re-election or is dropped from the cabinet? Do they kick out the sub? and what do they campaign on? – People of Ballysomewhere “Vote for me, my sub did all the local work.” Or is it intended that you’d be a minister in a government and if you fall out of favour with the party leader that your political career over? Talk about giving a means to quell dissent against the leader.

Think about that for a moment, anyone who is a minister would serve entirely at the pleasure of the Taoiseach, once appointed they would be open to being dismissed and have no seat to return to, not means to challenge the leader of the day. There is a strong argument to made for this power if we were to elected the Taoiseach directly as the person in that office would have  strong direct mandate from the people. Yet to continue to have the Dail elect the Taoiseach who then appoints ministers, none of whom will be able to challenge him for fear of losing their jobs, would mean that for example Michael Martin would not have been able to challenge Brian Cowen nor Albert Reynolds challenge Charles Haughey. Once gone as minister they would be gone from parliament and without an income would be gone from public life.

These set of proposals is even more half baked than I thought they might be, and FF are still persisting, and being allowed to do so by the press, with inventing terms that make no sense like single seat PR *(it’s called the Alternative Vote and as LibDems in the UK will tell you it’s not really all that proportionate)  and unilateral renegotiation.

Could the general election screw up the Census?

// January 6th, 2011 // No Comments » // 2011, yes minister

It was noted to me the other day in conversation that there might be a small problem with having the general election in March. The thing is see, we’re going to have several thousand people knocking on doors across the country on the serious business of distributing and then collecting (though that would happen in April) census forms and the last thing we would want is for them to be hunted for the doors of Ireland by people who thought they were canvassers for the election.

So remember to answer your door as while it might not be that effing politician you were expecting, it could instead be a helpful census taker who is only trying to do us all a service. And please don’t think of eating any of them.