Daniel Sullivan - he’s a little political

How might you run an election over Christmas?

// July 19th, 2010 // 1 Comment » // elections

The date of  budget 2010 was Dec 9th 2009 which would imply that budget day 2011 is scheduled for Dec 8th 2010, if the governmwent were to fall on the budget vote we would have an election campaign taking place over the Christmas holiday period with polling perhaps falling on Jan 13th?

The 2007 election was held on 24 May 2007 after Bertie called for the dissolution on 29th April  - a Sunday. The election campaign took place over a gap of 21 working days or so. Bank holidays and Sundays are not included in the minimum/maximum period that a campaign must take place over. Christmas has 3 bank holidays but many people take considerably more time off over that period. Would it in fact suit the government better to have the election campaign over a 4 week period almost 2 of which would could not be campaigned during for practical reasons? Or if it is looking like the budget will not pass is it better to campaign for as long as possible in advance of polling day or to have the campaigning time as truncated as possible so that the opposition can’t convince the public which way to jump?

“I take full responsibility” Brian Cowen

// June 11th, 2010 // No Comments » // brian cowen

So on foot of the banking reports, An Taoiseach, Brian Cowen says that he takes full responsibility but what does that mean? Is he going to resign, is he going to decline to lead FF into the next election? not a chance! Will he forego his pay until the next election, or return his money earned as Minfin? You tell me once you get off the floor.

Last night on Prime Time Cowen was bigging up his proposals in 2006 to eliminate property incentives which came into final effect in 2008 despite he becoming MinFin in 2004.

So what does “taking full responsibility” for An Taoiseach actually mean? Especially, when he then says his decisions were correct based on the faulty information provided by the ESRI, the IMF, the OCED. Where did they get the info to make their projections from except the department of Finance? And who was the minister in charge of that? He constantly demands endorsement of his government’s “right decisions” after the banking crisis happened despite that crisis being large due to the decisions he made before it came about which he wants to avoid discussing as “that’s history”. So what he is telling us is that he made the correct, the logical, the right decisions based on the information provided to him by others, which turned out to be wrong but sure no one could have known it was wrong and that he himself wasn’t able to read the raw data for himself and so had to rely on the views of others as to what this information meant. So he lacked the skills to be minister for Finance but sure what did that matter cos he was the man to take the decisions! Except that when he took the decision, he wasn’t taking it so much as it was taking him.

Yet FF TDs were going up and down the country telling us that we were building more houses than ever before when people raised the issue of rising house prices, did he not think that an exponential rise in building starts might constitute a bubble? We had 100% and 100% plus mortgages, no deposit required, did that not look like reckless lending to him? Did he not read a newspaper or listen to a radio ad in all that time?

Cowen is like the footie manager you see on the telly who says he takes full responsibility for his teams performance but then publicly blames each and every failing in a match on his players. Or on the ref! Players he bought, trained and picked who were playing the game according to his tactics.

It’s like a kid who breaks your window and says “I’m sorry” in a resentfully, snaring voice and then walks off saying he will fix it but does nothing about it. I’m analogied out but you get the picture.

Budget 2010 - where do we go from here?

// December 10th, 2009 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

I think the core belief for the minister for Finance is that earnings in the private sector are already down and that the public sector earnings which are paid for from taxes levied on those private sector earnings had to follow them down. So I tend to agree that we had to bridge a 4 billion gap but I don’t agree with how it was done. (this notion that because we agree about the size of the problem that we all agree on the approach is lunacy but lunacy that you can get away with because of the lack of numeracy and more generally confidence with maths that exists in the media. People work in the media because they were good at English or had good social skills and could express themselves not because they could add. No more than people get the big prizes or the big for Physics, Economics or engineer not because of their ability to coordinate their wardrobe or be the first with the bon mots). Agreeing the gap is 4 billion is like saying the gap across that river is 400m, that doesn’t mean you agree with the suggestion of others that we dam the river or build a bridge or a raft.

Taking just one example of where I think we’ve gone wrong. I have to wonder at the mentality behind the cuts to those under 25. Why does a single person of 30 need more than one of 20? If ever there was a sign that the state does not have any time or faith in younger people then that was it. The notion that some adults should be at home with their parents is not even Victorian. I’m well past being in that cohort but I would have thought the last thing someone in authority with any appreciation of history would do during the worst downturn since the 30s is target young people with time on their hands and muscle at their disposal. All that is necessary now is a harsh winter and some demagogue to appear with a winning and simplistic way out of this and we’re well on our way to civil unrest before the summer has started.

Perhaps, that is all part of Lenihan’s plan make some elements of the population so angry they abandon democracy rather than vote for any of the opposition.

I personally think that the trade union movement as it is exists primarily as a public sector beast is facing a massive moment. I can’t see strikes this side of Christmas but a phased and escalated plan of action starting in mid Jan has to be almost certain now. Truth is if the unions had the faith that their members were 100% behind them they would go out 1 day a week more each week until they were completely out on strike and they would sit outside the Dáil or some such public buildings a la Ukraine. The problem is that I suspect the union membership aren’t all that convinced of their own argument, sure the lower paid, those on 30K and under are righteous but I can’t help think that some of those on 50K and more wouldn’t feel less than bullish about sitting out for a few nights to defend their salaries.

The odd thing is that the government may welcome such a confrontation as some voters who have drifted away from them because of their dithering over the last 2 years might be attracted back because of a show of strength even if it is just a show.