Daniel Sullivan - he’s a little political

Are FF in fact the Green Party’s mudguards?

// March 3rd, 2010 // 4 Comments » // Uncategorized

With the various commentary about the future of the Greens and how they might deal with it. Once the government goes to the country whenever that it, I was wondering are FF’s 2nd candidate TDs in fact the Green Party’s own constituency mudguards?

It is frequently noted that the smaller party in government with FF ends up as it’s mudguard taking most of its flak and ultimately paying the price at the polls. But is that really the case for the Greens?

Let’s go through each of the Green TDs and consider more closely the local situation for them

Cuffe is most likely gone because too much (might only be 500/800 1st preferences but it would be enough) of his vote will drift over to Richard Boyd Barrett while he will not get the same transfers from Lab and FG next time. Plus the constituency has gone from a 5 to a 4 seater. So it’s not so much an uphill challenge as it is vertical with some overhang. Verdict: barring miracles a loss here

Gogarty is given some space by the fact that the only FF had the votes last time to challenge for a 2nd seat and that wouldn’t be the case next time. With Harney likely to go FG will gain her seat and SF (who did better than even they expected with Joanne Spain given the ructions over her late adoptioj as the SF candidate) would be the main threat to Gogarty but it is unclear if they will repeat given the underperformance of SF across Dublin in 2009. Verdict: A probably hold.

Sargent is still personally popular and again it is FF that is in poll position to take the first loss here not the GP (that would be a seat loss to the Socialist Party), and neither Lab nor FG appear to have high profile 2nd candidates in the field as yet. Verdict: A probable hold.

Mary White – FF will certainly drop one and FG will get their 2nd here but it is Labour’s weakness (divided across the two counties and with internal division aside from that which were papered over for years by Seamus Pattinson’s holding of the seat) that could let Mary White back in on FF transfers. Verdict: A possible hold.

Eamon Ryan – with FF possibly going into the next election with not outgoing TD standing if Tom Kitt makes good on his threat/promise and the possibility (though don’t write off FG just yet) that Alex White will be a TD already. It is possible that Eamon Ryan could hold on, getting the last seat ahead of the 3rd FG candidate on foot of FF transfers from their eliminated 2nd candidate. Verdict: A probable hold.

John Gormley – FG and Labour will be gunning for a 2nd seat, most likely at Gormley’s expense with Labour best placed to take it on paper and geography if cllr Kevin Humphreys is the 2nd candidate. But DSE is a strange place and many that voted for McDowell last time might give Gormley a vote with a view that he has been firm and placed a sticky wicket (I think that’s a game played down there) passably well. FF might decide to rope in Eoin Ryan to secure their seat if it looks under threat at the expense of Chris Andrews. Verdict: A possible hold.

So were the opposition to (on the QT mind) not beat up on the Greens locally too much they could still come back with a few TDs and a party able to rebuild.

Blasphemy, blas for you. A taste of Dermot Ahern for everyone.

// January 4th, 2010 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

Over on Irishelection, Veronica has a piece covering the media push for Blasphemy.ie.

What will make this focus on blasphemy and mass cards by the minister all the more ridiculous will be the possibility that the courts will end up tearing the Oireachtas a new one on foot of the challenge by the 15 year old boy to the under-age sex legislation.

Legislation that it was admitted at the time was rushed and probably flawed, so flawed that the likes of the Green party suggested that there should be sunset clause in it so that it would be revisited in a timely and more considered fashion. Almost 4 years on from the summer of 2006, we still have legislation that criminalises sexual activities on the basis of gender, and which says some activities are illegal on their own but become legal if they lead to full sexual intercourse. And which seems to suggest (from what I recall of Brendan Howlin’s rather excellent examination of it from the Labour benches of the Oireachtas)that girls can’t have under sex at all. Crazy beans.

Meanwhile the man who has been minister for Justice made rectifying blasphemy so that it would keep pace with changing times and regulating the sale of mass cards his priority.

Is the Irish government trying to collapse itself?

// July 17th, 2009 // 1 Comment » // Uncategorized

There is a widespread presumption aboard in the media that the Green’s get together over the weekend on the review of the program for government is merely an exercise in being seen by the membership to at least be going through the motions. And that getting the An Bord Snip Nua report out early is just a new effort at convincing the public that the government has nothing to hide and that the way forward for Lisbon will be cleared of too much speculation.

But what if it’s not?

What if the government is deliberately trying to engineer a situation whereby they collapse in the face of the decisions they face resulting in the need of an election once the Dail were to resume in September and timed to coincide with the Lisbon Treaty vote?

FF once there was a general election underway would probably see their support sneak back around the 30% mark which would be a recoverable position. The Greens while their % would be down nationally might be able to rally support to least some of their seating TDs. Sure people will say that FF would be looking at losing 1 in 4 TDs but just as the parliamentary party has no great personal loyalty to Brian Cowen so too has he no loyalty to the parliamentary party. His interest would be above and beyond all else the wider FF family. And that could be best served in his view by a spell in opposition while avoiding harsh measures that will make the 80s look like the 90s.

This would leave FF with almost a full Dail term to regroup and recover while FG and Labour would have had to take very, very painful decisions faced with an opposition lead by, my guess, Dermot Ahern which would have the default position of the Irish electorate to rely on in arguing that any and all harsh measures were the fault of the current government not a preceding one.

Is this likely? Not so much. But is it just possible? You betcha!