Are FF in fact the Green Party’s mudguards?

// March 3rd, 2010 // 4 Comments » // Uncategorized

With the various commentary about the future of the Greens and how they might deal with it. Once the government goes to the country whenever that it, I was wondering are FF’s 2nd candidate TDs in fact the Green Party’s own constituency mudguards?

It is frequently noted that the smaller party in government with FF ends up as it’s mudguard taking most of its flak and ultimately paying the price at the polls. But is that really the case for the Greens?

Let’s go through each of the Green TDs and consider more closely the local situation for them

Cuffe is most likely gone because too much (might only be 500/800 1st preferences but it would be enough) of his vote will drift over to Richard Boyd Barrett while he will not get the same transfers from Lab and FG next time. Plus the constituency has gone from a 5 to a 4 seater. So it’s not so much an uphill challenge as it is vertical with some overhang. Verdict: barring miracles a loss here

Gogarty is given some space by the fact that the only FF had the votes last time to challenge for a 2nd seat and that wouldn’t be the case next time. With Harney likely to go FG will gain her seat and SF (who did better than even they expected with Joanne Spain given the ructions over her late adoptioj as the SF candidate) would be the main threat to Gogarty but it is unclear if they will repeat given the underperformance of SF across Dublin in 2009. Verdict: A probably hold.

Sargent is still personally popular and again it is FF that is in poll position to take the first loss here not the GP (that would be a seat loss to the Socialist Party), and neither Lab nor FG appear to have high profile 2nd candidates in the field as yet. Verdict: A probable hold.

Mary White – FF will certainly drop one and FG will get their 2nd here but it is Labour’s weakness (divided across the two counties and with internal division aside from that which were papered over for years by Seamus Pattinson’s holding of the seat) that could let Mary White back in on FF transfers. Verdict: A possible hold.

Eamon Ryan – with FF possibly going into the next election with not outgoing TD standing if Tom Kitt makes good on his threat/promise and the possibility (though don’t write off FG just yet) that Alex White will be a TD already. It is possible that Eamon Ryan could hold on, getting the last seat ahead of the 3rd FG candidate on foot of FF transfers from their eliminated 2nd candidate. Verdict: A probable hold.

John Gormley – FG and Labour will be gunning for a 2nd seat, most likely at Gormley’s expense with Labour best placed to take it on paper and geography if cllr Kevin Humphreys is the 2nd candidate. But DSE is a strange place and many that voted for McDowell last time might give Gormley a vote with a view that he has been firm and placed a sticky wicket (I think that’s a game played down there) passably well. FF might decide to rope in Eoin Ryan to secure their seat if it looks under threat at the expense of Chris Andrews. Verdict: A possible hold.

So were the opposition to (on the QT mind) not beat up on the Greens locally too much they could still come back with a few TDs and a party able to rebuild.

The Rules of the Inquiry into the Banks

// January 21st, 2010 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

#1 The first rule of the inquiry, is you do not enquire about the inquiry!

#2 The second rule of the inquiry, is you DO NOT enquire about the inquiry!

#3 – If someone says stop, feels peckish, goes to the bathroom, cites the national interest or the vulnerability of the economy the inquiry is over.

#4 – There are two sides at least to an inquiry. All sides are entitled to legal counsel at the taxpayers expense.

#5 – One Inquiry at a time.

#6 – No loud shirts, no Hawaiian shorts, no home-made shoes, no sandals.

#7 – The Inquiry will go on as long as it has to.

#8 – If this is your first time at the Inquiry, you have to answer. Unless, of course, you don’t feel like it, which is ok cos we don’t feel like enquiring into this either. It’s just that public opinion made us feel we had to seem like we were doing something.

*Hearing about John Gormley’s defence of the government’s Enquiry into the banks that “It will not be secret, it will be held in private” So the notion that it’s not a secret, you just can’t talk about it to anyone else lead me to the above.

The longest petition for political divorce in Irish history

// October 1st, 2009 // No Comments » // Uncategorized

The Greens have leaked or had stolen from their HQ some of their policy ideas for the new Program for Government. Engaging in some verbal theft of my own from Gerald Kaufman MP, who said of the 1983 Labour party manifesto that it was the longest political suicide note in history, I would say this set of ideas is the longest petition for political divorce in Irish history.

While some of the ideas are quite sensible the question is whether FF will be in any position to wear them given the state of the economy. I simply don’t know, but my guess is that they won’t. Agreeing to them would open the cabinet up to a list of ideas from their own backbenchers. Below are some of the Green thoughts and my own feelings on them

A reduction in the number of TDs, – no real problem there, but how big a reduction?

major changes in the electoral system – I would agree with the need for changes but what changes exactly. Not sure that top up TDs is the way to go.

a new third rate of income tax – I’d go for 4 rates of tax, with a new one of 55% and have an introductory rate of 10% which would apply to those on the minimum wage.

the abolition of the PRSI ceiling, – If we’re abolishing the ceiling then don’t we have to abolish the ceiling on the benefits of PRSI too? Otherwise it’s a tax by another name

the integration of the income levies with the tax rates – yes

and a clampdown on tax exiles. – By all means, not sure how much it would raise. But it seems the right thing to do.

An animal welfare Bill that would ban hare coursing, stag hunting, fur farming and the importation of wild animals to be used in circuses is another objective.- I’m sort of ambivalent about this

The Greens are also insisting that basic social welfare entitlements and overseas development aid should not be cut in the forthcoming budget.-

I’d cut the base rate of the social back to the nice round figure of €200 including reducing the non-contributory pension by the same amount (not to the same figure) while leaving the contributory as is.

They also want a massive shift of emphasis from investment in road building to public transport initiatives in the Government’s capital programme.- Let’s buy lots and lots of buses, and extend the frequency and capacity of the commuter rail network.

The party is also seeking a commitment from its partners that the value of social welfare payments should be protected for the next three years. – After the reduction above, I wouldn’t see any reason to reduce them further.

A total revamp of the health service with the introduction of a universal single-tier system is another key part of the plan.- i.e. this is the FG and Labour plans in essence so I’ve no problem with the over arching aims here.

Tax incentives for private health insurance would be abolished.- over time that makes some sense but we’d want to have fixed the health system first.