Daniel Sullivan - he’s a little political

Where does Fine Gael go now?

// June 18th, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

I think this rural vs urban stuff is nonsense, Mark Coughlan of another parish noted that it seemed to be in areas where the PDs had once had a foothold or seat that the FGers were opposed to the confidence motion. I would expend that and incorporating my previously expressed and rather simplistic notion of tribalists versus policisits slightly. I would suggest that TDs and Senators from places where FF are the only enemy (and I would include places where a personal vote has gotten Labour TDs elected), these are for the most part ideological free zones and have been for the last 30 years or more and they tended to back Enda because they saw this as an internal party matter and assault on the chief. But in places where FGers have had to battle Labour, the PDs, SF or the Greens or some other shape of ideologue then they saw this as being about reaching out way beyond traditional FG territory by the force of our ideas and so were backing Bruton. In those places, they are tend to FG more by choice than by birth and what the party actually does is more important than who does it. Those they are places where the PDs gained votes from FG during the 80s and 90s.

That divide still remains, and if those who think it is more important what your family did in 1922 than what you’ve got to offer yourself have the upper hand and use it to secure their position then the party is going to find itself struck around 30% for the foreseeable future with Labour and FF snapping at their heels. But if they realise that what was being said in criticism of the performance at the top table was valid and that we still require a change at the top, even if that change is to be in what the top is doing rather than who it is that is doing it  then we could really make some headway and leap well ahead of both FF and Labour. For me it is noteworthy that no one has addressed my Bloomsday questions  to date, and I think that’s because they are still current and no one particularly wants to give voice to the answers.

Those  questions are.

1. Do they accept there is a problem with the public’s perception of his abilities – not with his actual abilities but with the public’s perception of them? I think most people will answer yes.

2. To those who accept there is a problem with that perception, what do we do about it? There are three options: i) demonstrate immediately a convincing plan to right the public’s misconceptions of Mr Kenny and explain why this has not happened before now, ii) accept stagnation of the party’s support, or iii) remove the perception problem entirely by removing the very man who is the subject of the incorrect perception.

We appear yesterday to have rejected option (iii) and surely we can’t as a party be planning on living with option (ii) so the question remains when will we see movement on option (i)?

What chances for a smooth change at the top of FG?

// June 14th, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

I suspect that it is obvious at this point that the possibility of a change at the top of FG has increased in the last 48 hours and the likelihood of this change over being a smooth and relatively bloodless one has, despite the appearances in the media, increased too. I believe that Enda Kenny knows that the race as currently constituted is run and a change in approach is needed and that he simply can’t overcome the incorrect perception of him that has fixed itself in the mind of the electorate. I say this as a fan of the man, he would be a superb Taoiseach but too large a portion of the electorate can’t see that. So the question is what do we do about it?

In part this mis-perception is to due to the media back lash after he took over the party as many people in the media were somewhat affronted that this guy from the west about whom they knew little had become leader of the main opposition party. Moreover, some of them were appalled that FG hadn’t disappeared to give them the simplistic left right politics they so desperately ached for. Enda Kenny kept the party from relegation into irrelevancy and obscurity but the work to do so meant that most of his time was spent with the organisation the length and breadth of the country and not in Dublin wining and dining with the media insiders. This crucial 18 months when he saved the party has probably damned him in the eyes of the media.

He was exactly what was needed to save the party, but we should remember that Moses never got to the promised Land. For those who say that we must support Enda in all circumstances come what may, I would ask two simply questions.

a) Do they accept that there is a problem with the public’s perception of his abilities? Not with his actual abilities but with the public’s perception of them. If they don’t then they must be blind or delusional.

And b) for those in full command of their faculties who accept there is a problem with that perception then the next question is what do we do about it? If there is something we can do about the then I wish to Christ we could hear it from them cos keeping it as a secret weapon to be deployed just when we need it most has gone on too long. Alternately, if there is nothing more we can do about that perception then either we accept that the party’s support will stagnant into the future at a time when the electorate is in complete flux or they see that a change is necessary. Those are the three options, demonstrate immediately a convincing plan to right the public’s perception of Enda Kenny (and explain why this has not happened before now), accept stagnation of the party’s support or remove the perception problem by removing the man the incorrect perception is of. I’m open to people telling me of other options, but right now those are the only ones I see.

By moving to lance the boil that is the public’s perception of him Enda Kenny can still take the point position in the debate against Brian Cowen, and he can challenge him to match his actions. Enda can profess that the situation has been changed so much by the banking reports that the people need to believe and be convinced that the next Taoiseach will be in command of the economic issues and not be open to being lead or being hostage as it is now so plain Brian Cowen has been, and that FG needs to be strong and seen to be strong in this area in order to ensure that the siren call from Labour to the electorate that there is some easy and painless way out of our economic situation is resisted.

Labour have done well convincing people that we can avoid public sector spending cuts, that we can somehow find significant extra taxation without it impacting on anyone or slowing down the recovering of the economy. There are areas where tax allowances on pensions say can be reduced but you can only do that the once.

We need to find 3 billion this year and then an extra 3 billion again the next and more again the year after that, not the same savings being done again but additional reductions in spending or increases in taxation. If we can get more people in work, then tax revenues will raise and public spending in the form of social welfare reductions.  But where will the money come from to fund this work? If the state were to provide it, we would be borrowing even more which we simply can’t do. That is to relive the 80s all over again.

The end of Enda

// June 11th, 2010 // No Comments » // enda kenny

He has been an excellent leader of the party and has the qualities to make a great Taoiseach but the electorate have fixed in their minds a view of him that is inaccurate, not based on his performance and even at times simply unfair. Yet it would seem that a large portion of them are not for shifting in this view.

It would appear that the public has decided that Enda is the soccer guy who clears out the dead wood, sets up the youth academy, brings through new young players and buys well even wins a few cups but having done all that just can’t seem to connect with them and the squad he has assembled in order to win the league. It’s frustrating and undeserved for Enda Kenny but I think that if the government wins the confidence motion next Tuesday that we as a party should immediately make a smooth transition to a new leader in the form of Richard Bruton and look over the course of the summer to iron out a deal with the Greens that transitions them out of government ASAP. Offer them 3 Taoiseach’s nominee seats in the next Seanad for 3 of their TDs that lose their seats to let them recover as a party in opposition (we’re going to win the Seanad elections anyway with a minimal amount of cllr discipline) and we could look at implementing some of the outstanding Green policies from the PfG that aren’t that awful. A properly constituted directly elected Mayor for Dublin isn’t a bad idea, nor is reform of the planning system.

What the poll shows is our problem that FG are obviously not getting the party’s message across well enough. I get quite annoyed at some of our spokespeople for the their inability to get across a cohesive and consistent narrative of what a vote for FG would mean and what the change that would result from a FG win would be like.

Enda Kenny’s leadership isn’t separate from that but nor it is the whole story.

The rise in Labour’s support is quite impressive for what it is but also very interesting for what it isn’t. It’s not an endorsement of Labour’s policies because they don’t have any. They have a series of well expressed if ill defined goals but not detailed policies to achieve them.

I think the truly massive implication from this poll and other recent ones is that the electorate are hugely volatile. FF have lost the faith of the public and neither FG nor Labour or SF have 100% convinced them to date otherwise Labour would have been over 30% much earlier. There are a lot of voters who are open to listening to a new message and it would seem they are taste testing at the moment. And we should take our lucky stars that we don’t have a rabid party of the right looking for scapegoats amongst racial minorities or minority sections of society.

What this poll does prove once and for all is the folly of many left leaning people in their desire to get FG off the pitch so that a real left/right contest could emerge. It has always been the fact that FF were on Labour’s territory that prevented that sort of contest coming about.

Should FG change leader? I don’t believe so but the question is now will FG change leader? I think it is more possible than it was 6 months ago. There won’t be any movement (with that I’ve probably just damned Enda’s chances of staying on) on the FG leadership this side of the no confidence motion. After all it is entirely possible for McDaid and McGuinness to go walk about, for Lowry to decline to support Cowen (anyone miss his Oxegen ticket give-away?) and Jackie to fail to make the train up from Kerry. And were that to happen all bets are off. For now though it looks to me like the End has started.