Daniel Sullivan - he’s a little political

How might you run an election over Christmas?

// July 19th, 2010 // 1 Comment » // elections

The date of  budget 2010 was Dec 9th 2009 which would imply that budget day 2011 is scheduled for Dec 8th 2010, if the governmwent were to fall on the budget vote we would have an election campaign taking place over the Christmas holiday period with polling perhaps falling on Jan 13th?

The 2007 election was held on 24 May 2007 after Bertie called for the dissolution on 29th April  - a Sunday. The election campaign took place over a gap of 21 working days or so. Bank holidays and Sundays are not included in the minimum/maximum period that a campaign must take place over. Christmas has 3 bank holidays but many people take considerably more time off over that period. Would it in fact suit the government better to have the election campaign over a 4 week period almost 2 of which would could not be campaigned during for practical reasons? Or if it is looking like the budget will not pass is it better to campaign for as long as possible in advance of polling day or to have the campaigning time as truncated as possible so that the opposition can’t convince the public which way to jump?

A new political party

// July 7th, 2010 // No Comments » // elections

Another in a series of letters to the IT, in part this was a contributory reason for starting the polly blog in the first place.

Madam, – This recent talk of a new political party is all very interesting until you listen to what different people say they want from one, and it turns out they all want entirely different things. More liberal, more traditional, less taxes, more spending, both more right wing and more left wing.

The dull grown-up reality is that political parties are implicit coalitions of many different interests that work to find common cause with one another. In Irish politics, our so-called Independents are really people who can’t bring themselves to find sufficient common cause with anyone else for long enough to agree a party name and a date for their next meeting. So how could they bring the electorate together in a common cause? They can’t and never will.

What is needed is not new parties, but a renewed focus on the part of the electorate on what it is they really want from politics. Do they want to ensure there is a bed just for them in the hospital or sufficient beds for all who need them? Do they want lower taxes just for themselves or a fair tax system for everyone? Do they want public spending restraint in all areas except the ones that directly affect them, or do they want real reform of public services so that the service exists to do what it is tasked with but with no hiding places for waste and personal empire building?

Only when the people genuinely change what they want will it change what they get from politics. That’s only the first – but necessary – step. – Yours, etc,

Of gender, jobs and quotas

// July 5th, 2010 // No Comments » // elections

Over on political reform one of the most commented pieces in recent times concerns the description of the new Fine Gael front bench as ‘Male, stale and pale’. This description is in itself ironic given the complete absence of any women in the self described progressive parties like the current SF line up or even the Green party in the last Dail. Labour do better it’s true as a portion of their Dáil representation but that has as much to do with their small size as anything one or two more TDs less than they have now and their portion drops in double digit percentages.

In the comments and cited in evidence of the experience of female candidates is a survey from the National Women’s Council of Ireland, which to be honest reads like a whine  list or litany of awful things from the campaign trail that anyone who has stood in an election could offer up, whether male or female. I had a canvasser of mine who was hunted from a doorstep in a urban Dublin area by someone brandishing what they thought was a shotgun!

I would contend that an alternative view to the notion of quotas might be that we should have an electoral system that did not serve to penalise political parties for taking chances on candidates, whether male or female, who the parties fear the electorate might potentially decide to be wrong for them. This would allow the parties to be run as many candidates as were interested in offering themselves for consideration and it would be up to the public to decide who they wanted.

The fact is that PR-STV can work as a form of instant primary but parties do not do so as the issues of the potential of low transfers between party candidates might ultimately cost them seats. If total national seat allocation was based on the portion of the national vote received with the constituency election being a means to choose which specific individuals got the seat we might see more people take a chance along with parties being more willing to take that chance with them. The national seat distribution could be topped with those party or even non-party candidates who had the highest vote without being elected at the constituency level.

The other issues being raised about the nature of politics that is supposedly off putting to women, clubbishness and so on strikes me as missing the point. Convincing people to vote for you and support a course of action you advocate requires things like building alliances,  being somewhat thick skinned about personal comments etc. All of this effort against what is human behaviour is a bit like suggesting that sport X should change its rules so that more people who are currently unsuited to it could play it. But it would cease to be the sport it was. If you think soccer players should be able to catch the ball go play rugby or football, if you think people shouldn’t be able to make such rough tackles in football then play soccer. If you think that people shouldn’t club together to achieve their collective aims then electoral politics isn’t for you.

I hate to be citing Big Brother as empirical evidence of much of anything but the fact that the female contestants picked one another off while the males tended to club together until such time as they absolutely had to fight amongst themselves says something even if it’s hard to be 100% sure what it is.

Those negative comments from the NWCI Survey could be as easy found by asking male candidates of their experiences too, as I was a candidate at one time below are a few responses to the comments I’d add. The ‘quoted’ remarks are from the NCWI post on the survey

‘Negative comments from women [like] ‘politics is no place for a woman’ and ‘isn’t your husband great to be allowing you to do this’, to ‘don’t forget to make time for your children and don’t neglect you family’ really annoyed me. At the first council meeting, I was referred to as the ‘new girl’.

DK - I was in my 30s and even then most members of the party thought of me as a lad barely out of short trousers. Older people in Ireland are incredibly patronising of younger people, it’s not about gender.

‘And one elderly man on the doorstep said he would vote for me because ‘you would be handy for cooking them dinner in the council’ - he didn’t intend to be rude, but that was his truth”

DK - If people are put off by every negative comment and experience on a door step then they’ve no place contesting an election. Ask anyone who has contested an election and they will regale you with horror stories of craziness and abuse they’ve experienced. It will be a minority of people that behaviour like this but out of 100,000 people even 0.1% is a 100 people. The fact that I’d worked in IT lead some voters to think I’d be great for fixing the PCs in the council.

‘As I was on the ticket with a male, I was mostly ignored at the doors, unless I happened to be on my own - even when male party members were canvassing with me, the public tended to speak to them, not me.’

DK - It is your job as the candidate to make an impression on the voters, it is not the voter’s job to single you out. Be pushy, assert yourself. Why would someone choose to vote for someone to speak up for them when they don’t even spoke up for themselves? Remember you’ve come to their home, you have to convince them to chose you above all others.

‘Some women commented that as a young woman, I should be happy to be married and have children, not get into politics’

DK - I recall research from Liam Weeks at UCC on the 2004 local elections that showed that the worst for voting for young women were older women. But it is ironic that, if in part the under representation of women in politics is due to the behaviour of women voters that, the solution is to reward this behaviour by having a quota for those same women! Believe me a quota system won’t be seeing loads of 20 something women getting elected.

‘I stay in it (politics) because I want to continue making a difference in my area and to influence policy within a larger party, but it is frustrating!’

DK - Politics is incredible frustrating, if you can’t cope with frustration then knocking on thousands of doors isn’t for you. This like people complaining that they’d be Olympic distance champions only that they found the hours and hours of training to be really boring. If you can’t do the work involved in the training then don’t expect to get the medals. And political change takes place over decades, not a few months or years.

‘Women found it encouraging seeing a young female candidate seeking re-election’

‘Intimidation and bully tactics are still a very prevalent part of party politics. While existing female councillors are tolerated, obstacles and barriers are put in place to prevent further new female candidates from entering politics’

DK - Bullying or overbearing behaviour is common in lots of jobs, but  let’s face you have to have some sort of ego to stand in front of the public and ask that they vote for you not someone else. If you can’t cope with encountering overbearing egos then representative politics isn’t for you.

‘[There is a] Paternalistic attitude within the political party. Assumptions made that I am in more need of advice because I am a woman. Mostly among older men. Men in their 20s and 30s treat women equally on the whole’

DK - anyone who is on the younger side in any organisation will have any number of older people trying to bend their ear to provide them with the benefit of their advice and experience. Even if much of it is useless and repetitive. You will get the same from the voters. Learn listen and if it’s of any use then great but mostly you’re humouring people.

The actual new FG front bench

// July 1st, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

As got from p.ie, where there is mucho interesting discussion about it. Looks to me like Finance and the long term economy has been split which I think is a very good thing indeed.

FINE GAEL FRONT BENCH 2010 |

——————+———————-

Enda Kenny |Leader / Northern Ireland
—————————+———————-
Sean Barrett |Foreign Affairs
—————————+———————-
Richard Bruton |Enterprise, Jobs & Economic Planning (including public service reform)
—————————+———————-
Catherine Byrne |Older Citizens
—————————+———————-
Simon Coveney |Transport
—————————+——————————————-
Deirdre Clune |Innovation & Research
—————————+——————————————-
Jimmy Deenihan |Tourism, Culture & Sport
—————————+——————————————-
Andrew Doyle |Agriculture, Fisheries & Food
—————————+——————————————-
Frank Feighan |Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs
—————————+——————————————-
Charlie Flanagan |Children
—————————+——————————————-
Phil Hogan |Environment, Heritage & Local Government
—————————+——————————————-
Paul Kehoe |Chief Whip (with responsibility for political reform)
—————————+——————————————-
Michael Noonan |Finance
—————————+——————————————-
Fergus O’Dowd |Education & Skills
—————————+——————————————-
John Perry |Small Business
—————————+——————————————-
James Reilly |Deputy Leader & Health & Children, (with responsibility for policy coordination &
implementation)
—————————+——————————————-
Michael Ring |Social Protection
—————————+——————————————-
Alan Shatter |Justice & Law Reform
—————————+——————————————-
David Stanton |Defence
—————————+——————————————-
Leo Varadkar |Communications & Natural Resources
—————————+——————————————-
Frances Fitzgerald |Leader in Seanad

I’ll be on Newstalk’s Saturday Edition in the morning

// June 18th, 2010 // 1 Comment » // Uncategorized

I will be taking part in a discussion re: the week’s events in Fine Gael tomorrow morning between 8.30am and 9.30am. I’m not a main player as it were, merely a phone contributor.  Senator Alex White, Senator Frances Fitzgerald and Padraig Duffy former press for Bertie are the main attraction but I’m aiming to be one of those memorable character actors who runs off with the show. I mean I presume it’s solely going to be about matters Fine Gael cos if we stray into talking about the Lakers win over the Celtics I’m in trouble.

Where does Fine Gael go now?

// June 18th, 2010 // No Comments » // fine gael

I think this rural vs urban stuff is nonsense, Mark Coughlan of another parish noted that it seemed to be in areas where the PDs had once had a foothold or seat that the FGers were opposed to the confidence motion. I would expend that and incorporating my previously expressed and rather simplistic notion of tribalists versus policisits slightly. I would suggest that TDs and Senators from places where FF are the only enemy (and I would include places where a personal vote has gotten Labour TDs elected), these are for the most part ideological free zones and have been for the last 30 years or more and they tended to back Enda because they saw this as an internal party matter and assault on the chief. But in places where FGers have had to battle Labour, the PDs, SF or the Greens or some other shape of ideologue then they saw this as being about reaching out way beyond traditional FG territory by the force of our ideas and so were backing Bruton. In those places, they are tend to FG more by choice than by birth and what the party actually does is more important than who does it. Those they are places where the PDs gained votes from FG during the 80s and 90s.

That divide still remains, and if those who think it is more important what your family did in 1922 than what you’ve got to offer yourself have the upper hand and use it to secure their position then the party is going to find itself struck around 30% for the foreseeable future with Labour and FF snapping at their heels. But if they realise that what was being said in criticism of the performance at the top table was valid and that we still require a change at the top, even if that change is to be in what the top is doing rather than who it is that is doing it  then we could really make some headway and leap well ahead of both FF and Labour. For me it is noteworthy that no one has addressed my Bloomsday questions  to date, and I think that’s because they are still current and no one particularly wants to give voice to the answers.

Those  questions are.

1. Do they accept there is a problem with the public’s perception of his abilities – not with his actual abilities but with the public’s perception of them? I think most people will answer yes.

2. To those who accept there is a problem with that perception, what do we do about it? There are three options: i) demonstrate immediately a convincing plan to right the public’s misconceptions of Mr Kenny and explain why this has not happened before now, ii) accept stagnation of the party’s support, or iii) remove the perception problem entirely by removing the very man who is the subject of the incorrect perception.

We appear yesterday to have rejected option (iii) and surely we can’t as a party be planning on living with option (ii) so the question remains when will we see movement on option (i)?

The end of Enda

// June 11th, 2010 // No Comments » // enda kenny

He has been an excellent leader of the party and has the qualities to make a great Taoiseach but the electorate have fixed in their minds a view of him that is inaccurate, not based on his performance and even at times simply unfair. Yet it would seem that a large portion of them are not for shifting in this view.

It would appear that the public has decided that Enda is the soccer guy who clears out the dead wood, sets up the youth academy, brings through new young players and buys well even wins a few cups but having done all that just can’t seem to connect with them and the squad he has assembled in order to win the league. It’s frustrating and undeserved for Enda Kenny but I think that if the government wins the confidence motion next Tuesday that we as a party should immediately make a smooth transition to a new leader in the form of Richard Bruton and look over the course of the summer to iron out a deal with the Greens that transitions them out of government ASAP. Offer them 3 Taoiseach’s nominee seats in the next Seanad for 3 of their TDs that lose their seats to let them recover as a party in opposition (we’re going to win the Seanad elections anyway with a minimal amount of cllr discipline) and we could look at implementing some of the outstanding Green policies from the PfG that aren’t that awful. A properly constituted directly elected Mayor for Dublin isn’t a bad idea, nor is reform of the planning system.

What the poll shows is our problem that FG are obviously not getting the party’s message across well enough. I get quite annoyed at some of our spokespeople for the their inability to get across a cohesive and consistent narrative of what a vote for FG would mean and what the change that would result from a FG win would be like.

Enda Kenny’s leadership isn’t separate from that but nor it is the whole story.

The rise in Labour’s support is quite impressive for what it is but also very interesting for what it isn’t. It’s not an endorsement of Labour’s policies because they don’t have any. They have a series of well expressed if ill defined goals but not detailed policies to achieve them.

I think the truly massive implication from this poll and other recent ones is that the electorate are hugely volatile. FF have lost the faith of the public and neither FG nor Labour or SF have 100% convinced them to date otherwise Labour would have been over 30% much earlier. There are a lot of voters who are open to listening to a new message and it would seem they are taste testing at the moment. And we should take our lucky stars that we don’t have a rabid party of the right looking for scapegoats amongst racial minorities or minority sections of society.

What this poll does prove once and for all is the folly of many left leaning people in their desire to get FG off the pitch so that a real left/right contest could emerge. It has always been the fact that FF were on Labour’s territory that prevented that sort of contest coming about.

Should FG change leader? I don’t believe so but the question is now will FG change leader? I think it is more possible than it was 6 months ago. There won’t be any movement (with that I’ve probably just damned Enda’s chances of staying on) on the FG leadership this side of the no confidence motion. After all it is entirely possible for McDaid and McGuinness to go walk about, for Lowry to decline to support Cowen (anyone miss his Oxegen ticket give-away?) and Jackie to fail to make the train up from Kerry. And were that to happen all bets are off. For now though it looks to me like the End has started.

What if there was an election and nobody won?

// May 7th, 2010 // No Comments » // ukge2010

That is pretty much what they’ve had in the UK. Labour lost massive numbers of seats, the Tories appear to be solidly short of a majority and the LibDems simply failed to convert support in votes.

It is possible, even more than probable, that another election would lead to an even more balanced parliament. If there is another election held in a short while when a minority Tory administration has had to impose significant cuts and do many, many unpopular things without being able to do anything that has an upside they are likely to lose as many seats as they might gain. While it is hard to see Labour gaining the 70/80 seats they would need to command a majority. It’s not a rerun of a British election in 1983, it is more like Ireland in 82/83.

The Tories baseless fear of PR

// May 5th, 2010 // No Comments » // ukge2010

Jason notes the fear factor being raised by the Daily Mail against PR. One does have to wonder if the poor dears writing for the Daily Mail in the UK know how PR works. Someone should get Richard Waghorne to help them out with it.

Fact is that the Tories would start life under a new PR system with a much better set up than anyone else. True all 3 of the major UK parties would fracture to some degree in the 1st election under what the form of PR-STV they might adopt, there are the Tories who would vote UKIP as 1st preference but they would come back to the Tories in later counts, the same for the LibDems as the more sandal orientated went for a walk in the meadows with the Greens. But it is the Labour movement which would split the most, producing a jamboree of leftish and far leftish parties that would emerge with so much antipathy between them that transfers would not be forthcoming. The 80s militant era would be a cake walk in comparison. It’s no coincidence that the right has tended to get people elected President in France despite the supposed left leaning nature of their voters.

So come on for the big win Conservatives and support PR. You’ve nothing to lose.

An less than Occasional Guide to Irish Politics: The Political Blogger

// March 26th, 2010 // 4 Comments » // Uncategorized

He (and it’s almost certainly a he) is the self styled outsider on Irish politics, more often than not left leaning though with the odd libertarian fly in the ointment. Occasionally might work in PR or could have had a proper job in industry. Has an opinion on just about everything in sight and if presented with an issue he has never encountered before (what health coverage are Aliens - the real 10ft tall slimy green kind- entitled to, at the taxpayer’s expense, while visiting Ireland as part of a fact finding mission) is prepared to make one up on the spot just to ensure that his views fill the air. Has read a few books on politics and is inclined to refer to them repeatedly, PJ O’Rourke’s Parliament of Whores is often a touchstone though largely because he likes to say Whores in a genteel company without mentioning Tiger Woods. Will link to people who once nodded to him that time he was in on the RTe or TV3 campus, though he was merely an audience member and didn’t succeed in getting to ask a question but the woman next to him did.

He has even run himself or managed the campaign of someone in the occasional election outing but was never in any danger of coming within an arse’s roar of holding public office. Might even still be a member of a political organisation but is almost certainly on the outer fringes of influence, or as he might term it ‘working away in the background’. Likes to pretend he enjoys having the access for ‘a quiet word’ with real political people of significance and can be found in pubs on the night of an Ard Fheis or public debates pointing out those parts of his leaders speech which he effectively wrote, or directly influenced or at least suggested something along similar lines to. “Look how he focused on saying we’re a team, great!” But brushes off the fact that practically the entire party had been saying much the same for years up to that point.

Takes to running offside or what he terms ahead of the pack on issues of public concern. Indeed, he will frequently make a lot of sense but for some reason the public just don’t get it. Or don’t read it or even know he exists. And somehow they manage to contentedly go about their lives!

Desperately wants someone to develop a speech plug-in to add to his blog which will read his words back to him, and perhaps others if they stumble across his writing, in his own voice. Usually sufficiently self deprecating not to take himself or his views too serious. After all, politics isn’t about anything important like how we get to live out our lives or indeed how we face death. Nothing major really.

*Done in honour of the weekend that is in it and in homage to the excellent series that Jason O’Mahony has been running for a while now, I offer one that he is probably too shy or polite to add himself and which was prompted in part by the most recent one. Any resemblance to anyone alive or indeed writing here is entirely coincidental.