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Today’s poll in the Sunday Business post from REDC shows FF at 18% with FG at 31%, Lab at 27%,Sf at 9%, Greens at 4% with Independents 10%.
Such a result if replicated in a general election would lead to a result along the lines of that outlined here though it could be worse or better at the margins. That projection suggests
FG 61
LP 56
FF 27
SF 7
GP 3
OTH 11
The strong expectation from the potential election results based on this poll is that FG and Lab would form a coalition government after the election but there is another possibility. It is a possibility that I do not expect FG to really entertain with any seriousness or for FF to embrace but it would make the most sense from Machiavellian perspective and would lead to the development of the left right divide so beloved of the Irish commentariat. It won’t happen but here’s how it could.
FG should think about smothering FF by opting to include FF TDs in a coalition government and by not doing a deal with Labour. FG should look at what post the election result the deal with Labour has to offer and then simply turn around to FF and ask to if they would match or better it. There would have to be provisos.
Included in the provisos would be that none of the members of the current government or past FF lead cabinets would serve in cabinet, that FF ministers would be limited to only 4 ministries and none of those financial, education, defense and tourism come to mind. Doing this would serve to deny FF the open ground of opposition that would allow them to rebuild the organisation and revive the brand. This would be to enable the managed decline of FF as an organisation. FG could even suggest that the reason for doing this is that FF do not deserve to be able to simply walk away from the damage they have inflicted on the Irish economy and that they must be forced to serve more time in government shouldering the burden of cleaning up the mess they created.
It would strengthen Labour as well, to be seen as the clear opposition to the old establishment parties colluding together, so it would have to be a good government to really work in Fine Gael’s interests. Though it would shift to political debate to being based on the left-right axis.
I do think that in any case, Fianna Fáil will be a very different type of party if they’re not the largest in votes and seats, particularly if they come third.
Hahaha – could you imagine the FF reaction? Logically, it’s good but most FF’ers would prefer to commit Hara-Kiri!
Personally, I think the FF decline won’t be as bad as expected and the big winners will be Independents. Every yah-hoo thinking they have a brilliant plan to sort everything out, fighting on the platform of “I’m just an ordinary man and not subject to the vested interests of our political parties”
A better plan would be to create a French-style cadre party like Sarkozy did with Nouveau Centre – take the best people remaining out of the FF organisation and let them join the government. You still get to rout FF, but you also distance yourselves from them. Problem is that it could only work if FG were to increase their performance at Labour’s expense, and that seems to be the hardest thing for them to do at the moment.
Do you see yourself and Fine Gael as being right wing Dan?
Darren, i don’t see either myself or Fine Gael as being right wing. I do accept that my personal politics are probably to the right of most people in Ireland who actually have a consistent political worldview but that’s not the same thing. Joe higgins might be to the right of richard Boyd Barrett or vice versa but that doesn’t make either of them right wing. When it comes right down to it, i believe we are first and foremost a society made up of people not a society made up of groups we happen or choose to belong to. Does that make me more right than left? In the Irish context probably yes. But I don’t believe we are simply a loose collective of individuals either.
And i also accept that those who are right wing are more likely to support or be members of FG than Labour or FF but that doesn’t necessary mean that FG is a right wing. Is it more to the right than Labour? Yes. Is it more to the right than FF? Hard to say, FF over the last 20 years have had plenty of policies that were to the right of FG. Fact is FF and FG overlap in many policy areas so it’s hard to be definitive about them.
I agree. I don’t see Fine Gael as being right wing although I think Leo Varadkar and Olivia Mitchell might. Good post!
Yerra theres hardly any difference between FF and FG.