- Image by infomatique via Flickr
Indulging myself for a moment in some further speculative history based on the notion that FG, Labour and DL won enough support in 1997 to form a minority government with independents help that lasted as long as the FF/PD one.
Come the 2002 election FG and Labour (the merger with DL might well have happened away) would have romped home (given the prevailing economic situation) to a solid overall majority with over 90s seats between them, 30 plus for Labour and around 60 for FG. I think the PDs would have flourished more in opposition than FF and could have seen them return with a dozen seats in 2002. FF would have ended up with just about 50 seats and serious questions as to what was to be it’s raison d’etre. Having lost a 2nd election in a row Bertie Ahern steps down in disgrace and he is succeeded by Michael Martin who undertakes a radical reinvigoration of the party organisation but he is repeated criticised for his lightweight contributions in the Dail chamber. In 2007 FG leader Michael Noonan leads FG in an election where they were facing a renewed FF organisation even if many in the media are asking what it stands for.
Micheal Martin is preceived to have lost the leader’s debate in the face of the combative onslaught of Noonan but it doesn’t matter. Both FG and Labour front benches are perceived as too tired and familiar and the public have simply grown tired of them, Martin is heard to remark that no goverment should ever serve more than decade in power. Faced with a very diverse opposition of SF, Greens and PDs along with a populist FF they simply can’t stem the tide, leaking support in multiple different directions. They lose just under 20 seats between them (Labour end up on 21 seats with FG on 53) and FF (66) and the PDs (12) supported by the Greens (6) are able to enter government just as the global financial situation goes south and just as the government introduces reforms to stamp duty to give the market what it terms a dig out, the local property expansion runs out of steam. The reforms fail to have any positive effect and are erroneously blamed by the public and the media for sparking the downturn in the property sector.
FG under new leader Richard Bruton attack the government relentlessly for breaking the economy “it was in good stead when we left government, creating 10,000s of jobs and a budget in surplus and with some school boys errors they’ve ruined it almost overnight. They’re trying to get a quick fix by doling out tax breaks for their pals, like snuff at a wake”
The revelations in mid 2009 of the monies given to Bertie Ahern at the time of his taking over the FF leadership undermine the coalition when elements within FF that feel they’ve been unjustly left out of the cabinet and that FF are too accommodating of the Greens and PDs take to the airwaves in a robust defence of the former leader. That this defence is fatally flawed in the eyes of the public is demonstrated when the former FF leader claims in an appearance on the Late Late that he probably won the money on the Lotto but can’t, when asked for them, recall the numbers involved. Fellow panellist Eoghan Harris is heard to guffaw and say that he might as well be claiming that he won it on a horse, while Eamon Dunphy defends Bertie as a decent skin and ordinary man of the people. The Greens and PDs made uncomfortable with these revelations finally exit government in late 2009 citing a fundamental failure of trust with FF.
The election of the summer of 2009 is quite something.