By the power of entrails and the reading of tea leaves, here’s my current estimation of the state of play for the Dublin European elections.
Sinn Féin Lynn Boylan – 15%
Independent Nessa Childers 12%
Labour Party Emer Costello – 9%
Direct Democracy Tom D’Arcy 0.6%
Fianna Fáil Mary Fitzpatrick 16%
Fine Gael Brian Hayes 20%
Socialist Party Paul Murphy 7.9%
Green Party Eamon Ryan 15%
People Before Profit Brid Smith – 4.3%
Direct Democracy Raymond Whitehead – 0.2%
My prediction? Ryan and Childers by virtue of their greater profiles and ability to attract transfers will over Mary Fitzpatick and while Boylan will attract a greater portion of the left transfers, once Costello is eliminated those votes will push both Ryan and Childers ahead of her.