Dublin European election prediction (April 9th 2014)

By the power of entrails and the reading of tea leaves, here’s my current estimation of the state of play for the Dublin European elections.


ryan_and_kent_1 (Photo credit: kentbrew)

Sinn Féin Lynn Boylan – 15%

Independent Nessa Childers 12%

Labour Party Emer Costello – 9%

Direct Democracy Tom D’Arcy 0.6%

Fianna Fáil Mary Fitzpatrick 16%

Fine Gael Brian Hayes 20%

Socialist Party Paul Murphy 7.9%

Green Party Eamon Ryan  15%

People Before Profit Brid Smith – 4.3%

Direct Democracy Raymond Whitehead – 0.2%

My prediction? Ryan and Childers by virtue of their greater profiles and ability to attract transfers will over Mary Fitzpatick and while Boylan will attract a greater portion of the left transfers, once Costello is eliminated those votes will push both Ryan and Childers ahead of her.

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